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Climate Change Comes at a Cost for New York State’s Society and Economy

January 17, 2023

New York State is an economic and cultural powerhouse—a pillar of global trade and a home to many vibrant communities. Climate change, however, is affecting how New Yorkers in every region of the state live, work, and recreate. It has implications for our livelihoods, economy, and social institutions. What, then, can the people who live and work in New York expect in the years to come? What do individuals and their leaders need to know to prepare?

The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment’s Society and Economy technical workgroup, led by co-chairs Dr. Robin Leichenko and Dr. Luis Aguirre-Torres, is exploring these very questions. Leichenko, a professor and co-Director of the Rutgers Climate Institute, has conducted extensive research exploring the social, economic, and equity impacts of climate change in the northeastern United States. Aguirre-Torres recently served as the Director of Sustainability for the City of Ithaca, where he oversaw the city’s Net Zero 2030 strategy, before joining Rewiring America and the World Economic Forum’s Senior Executive Group on Net Zero Carbon Cities. Climate change impacts, Leichenko and Aguirre-Torres jointly emphasize, are already pervasive in New York State. These impacts affect every part of our society and economy, from natural resource industries to insurance, finance, health care, and education. To work toward a resilient future, a thorough understanding of the impacts that our industries, institutions, and communities face is crucial.

Climate change, Leichenko and Aguirre-Torres explain, affects—or will affect—New York State’s economy in a range of ways. For instance, more frequent and intense extreme weather can disrupt crucial supply chains, inhibit recreation and tourism, and damage assets and business capital. A changing climate also threatens natural resources that some industries, like agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, rely on for their products. For example, increasing ocean acidification caused by warming waters can hinder fish and shellfish growth. Climate hazards can also drive insurance rates up and threaten the financial health of entire communities.

In addition, climate change will affect the state’s social and cultural institutions, like education, local government, and arts and culture. Flooding, for example, can close schools, damage property, increase students’ exposures to health risks (think: mold), and affect their mental health and classroom performance. Extreme weather can disrupt critical government services and operations. Land loss from rising sea levels can displace Tribal Nations who have already experienced systemic displacement, further threatening their cultural heritage.

A crucial focal point in the workgroup’s efforts, Leichenko and Aguirre-Torres add, is highlighting how climate stressors intersect with and are worsened by other underlying social and economic stressors, placing certain populations at greater risk. Within New York State, lower-income populations, Tribal Nations, communities of color, and immigrants are more vulnerable to climate change—a stress that compounds with other forms of social and economic disadvantages that these groups often experience. Due to legacies of displacement, racial and ethnic discrimination, and higher exposure to other environmental pollutants, these populations are often on the front lines of climate hazards, but with fewer resources to adapt to them. In addition, differences in economic conditions—including income, wages, and economic recovery capacity—across the state’s regions affect communities’ ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme climate events. To provide an assessment that is truly relevant to all New Yorkers, the team is prioritizing equity and justice as a core component of their work.

The workgroup is also highlighting the increased exposure to climate hazards that certain types of workers face on the job, including frontline service and healthcare workers; essential government workers and other public servants like police, firefighters, and teachers; agricultural, landscaping, and construction workers; and those working outdoors in the transportation and energy sectors.

The workgroup includes eight other members collaborating with Aguirre-Torres and Leichenko: Mary Austerman, New York Sea Grant; Deborah Balk, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research and Baruch College, CUNY; Hallie Bond, Independent Consultant; Riobart Breen, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation—Office of Climate Change; David Burgy, New York Governor’s Office of Storm Recovery; Cassandra John, Spring Free EV; Franchelle Parker, Open Buffalo; and Kenneth Schlather, Cornell Cooperative Extension of Tompkins County. A diverse set of advisors will help the workgroup ensure that assessment results and products are accessible and relevant for all.

Ultimately, Leichenko and Aguirre-Torres emphasize, every community in New York State has the potential to contribute to climate solutions that advance mitigation, reduce vulnerabilities, and enhance resilience. Centering equity in adaptation, resilience actions, and mitigation strategies can help ensure that climate action meets the needs of local communities—while also promoting just transitions. To this end, the New York Climate Impacts Assessment team hopes to provide all communities and decision-makers with the information they need to address climate change, so those who live and work in New York State can thrive in the years to come.

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Climate Change Drives a Need for Resilient Transportation in New York State

November 17, 2022

Whether we realize it or not, transportation is key to just about every aspect of our lives. From supply chains to our daily commutes, transportation systems are essential to every aspect of a healthy economy and vibrant communities. Transportation connects us to jobs, goods, and recreation; essential services, like education and healthcare; and each other. Even when we remain at home, the goods we consume rely on ships, trains, trucks, and automobiles to find their way to our doorsteps. Given their fundamental significance in our society, transportation systems must be reliable and resilient.

New York’s vast transportation systems comprise many highly interconnected modes that traverse ground, sea, rivers, and sky. Freight trains and trucks link the state to interstate and global trade networks, transferring goods to and from cargo planes and ships at air and seaports. Mass transit systems and “micromobility” options—like bicycles and scooters—move people around neighborhoods and to airports and train stations to complete longer trips. Roads and railways connect communities and industries to each other within the state, as well as to New York’s U.S. and Canadian neighbors. All these crucial systems, however, are vulnerable to climate change.

“The effects of climate change [on the transportation system] are already being felt today, causing disruption to our communities through both direct and cascading impacts,” explains Amy Macdonald, co-chair of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment’s Transportation technical workgroup. For instance, increased precipitation and more frequent heavy downpours threaten roads, tunnels, and bridges through flooding and erosion. Extreme heat can damage railway infrastructure. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, heat waves, and ice storms, can ground flights, delay shipping, cause power outages, and shut down mass transit. These and other hazards can block access to essential goods and services, damage critical infrastructure, and threaten people’s health and safety.

Assessment experts are studying these impacts to inform climate-smart transportation planning decisions across New York State in the years to come. Macdonald, a risk and resilience specialist, has valuable hands-on experience responding to natural disasters across the globe and specializes in transportation systems risk management, climate adaptation, and resilience. Fellow co-chair Joan McDonald is well-versed in New York’s transportation systems—and how governments must respond to hazards—as the Director of Operations for Westchester County and the Chair of the New York State Bridge Authority; she was also the Commissioner of the NYSDOT from 2011 to 2015.

“In my government roles, I have experienced firsthand the impact climate change is having on how government responds,” McDonald notes. Extreme weather events, she states, “have required government to both respond during the event and assess afterward how we can improve our measures of resilience.” As extreme events become even more frequent and intense with climate change, McDonald emphasizes, governments must aggressively implement these measures while also assessing their benefits and costs. “This assessment is a much-needed guidebook for policy leaders throughout the state,” McDonald says. “We look forward to working with our partners in state and local government, as well as the private sector, as we build a more resilient New York State.”

The workgroup includes six other members working with McDonald and Macdonald: Hua Cai, Purdue University; Jennifer Ceponis, Capital District Transportation Committee; Cheila Cullen, City University of New York; Projjal Dutta, New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority; Gary McVoy, McVoy Associates, LLC; and Andrea Cristina Ruiz, ERG (formerly Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

The workgroup is also considering climate justice challenges affecting underserved communities, which experience a higher risk of harm from transportation system disruptions and failures. Rural areas can be cut off from essential supplies and services if extreme weather blocks or damages roads. Low-income communities may have fewer resources for local road and bridge maintenance and suffer disproportionate impacts from damaged infrastructure. Many people with disabilities or chronic illnesses are in danger of losing access to healthcare when public transit becomes inoperable or roadways become inaccessible. Communities that face disinvestment or have been historically excluded from transit planning—like Tribal nations and communities of color—may have underdeveloped infrastructure or fewer accessible options, compounding their risk.

Climate-related disruptions to transportation also affect livelihoods—especially for lower-income and hourly workers. Damaged or delayed transportation can prevent people from getting to their jobs; blue-collar workers, especially, are less likely to be able to work from home and are reliant on transportation systems to earn a living. Economic impacts are also felt by key industries and businesses across New York, such as agriculture, forestry, tourism, logistics, and more. Disruptions to freight systems can inhibit production and shipping, while an immobilized workforce can degrade operations and overall profitability. For instance, disruptions to freight systems can prevent farmers from transporting their goods from production facilities to consumers, a particular risk for goods with a shelf life.

It’s also important to remember that a given transportation mode does not exist as a standalone—all modes are part of a complex, intermodal system, and most are reliant on access and availability of fuel or electricity. Focusing on the climate resilience of only one part of the network risks leaving it vulnerable to cascading impacts from other modes and sectors. The Transportation workgroup recognizes that it is critical to study the sector holistically to understand how different climate hazards affect all transportation modes within these complex systems, as well as the direct and indirect impacts on the communities and industries that rely on them. The team is identifying these systemic risks to enable New York State’s communities and leaders to develop comprehensive, actionable solutions to climate-related transportation challenges.

“A detailed understanding of the shocks, stresses, associated vulnerabilities, and potential consequences will allow for risk-informed, future-focused decisions to be made on how we manage and develop our infrastructure,” Macdonald emphasizes. Ultimately, and together with the rest of the Climate Impacts Assessment team, the Transportation workgroup strives to inform strategies that can help New York State build a resilient future—and keep its communities and economy moving.

Subscribe and follow us on Twitter (@NYSClimate) to keep up with the latest news and information about the assessment.

Next edition: NYS Climate Assessment Spotlight: Society and Economy.

Climate Change Brings a Wave of Changes to New York State’s Water Resources

October 7, 2022

If you don’t live in a part of New York State that experiences frequent water scarcity or droughts, it can be easy to forget that our water is vulnerable to climate change. Yet many climate change impacts, such as changes to precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and higher temperatures, can affect the quantity and quality of the water resources we rely on every day. New York State is already beginning to see the impacts of climate change on its water resources, and they are poised to have wide-ranging consequences on our communities, ecosystems, and businesses.

The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment’s Water Resources technical workgroup is evaluating these impacts so decision-makers will have the information needed to prepare for an uncertain future. Dr. Stephen Shaw, an associate professor at the State University of New York (SUNY) College of Environmental Science and Forestry, leads the workgroup with Dr. Kelsey Leonard, an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo and Canada Research Chair in Indigenous Waters, Climate and Sustainability in the Faculty of Environment.

“Climate projections suggest that New York State will, on average, have more precipitation in the future,” states Shaw. “There is still the possibility of drought, but little evidence that periods with less rainfall will become more frequent than in the past.”

But this, Shaw emphasizes, does not mean New York will be spared from the possibility of water scarcity. “We can still experience greater water loss due to increased evaporation and transpiration (plant water loss) from higher temperatures and a longer growing season,” he explains. In particular, water systems with limited storage—especially those that are sensitive to short but intense dry periods—may experience shortfalls. “This could include homeowner wells that are particularly shallow or community water supplies that have small reservoirs or get water directly from small rivers or streams.”

New York State’s water quality, too, is at risk. Warmer temperatures create prime conditions for the growth of cyanobacteria (also known as harmful algae blooms) that can produce toxins. Flooding and storm surge can contaminate waterbodies—including drinking water sources—with bacteria, viruses, pollutants, and sediment, making the water unsafe to consume or use for recreation, swimming, and fishing. Rising sea levels can cause salt water to infiltrate into coastal groundwater systems and tidal rivers that supply communities with fresh water. For example, Shaw notes that in the Hudson River, the drinking water supply for more than 100,000 people, higher-salinity water will move farther upstream as sea levels rise.

The Water Resources workgroup is also committed to highlighting the water concerns of underrepresented voices across the state. They are paying careful attention to equity and justice issues, including documenting long-standing inequities and highlighting climate solutions that do not pose a further burden to under-resourced and underserved communities. For example, those experiencing the effects of systemic racism—like Black and African American communities and Tribal Nations and Indigenous Peoples—may historically lack reliable water infrastructure or have fewer resources to pay for water services. “Tribal Nations and Indigenous Peoples face distinct water insecurity issues further exacerbated by climate change,” states Leonard. “In 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identified these challenges as distinctly worsened due to colonialism.” For decision-makers, engaging with Tribal Nations and Indigenous Peoples and considering their perspectives and unique knowledge is crucial. “Despite the difficult challenges ahead,” notes Leonard, “Tribal Nations and communities across New York are building resilient strategies to adapt and protect water.”

Effective climate solutions must be equitable, accounting for social, economic, and regional vulnerabilities. “Solutions for adapting to climate change may require new and updated infrastructure for things like new treatment processes, new pipes, and new water intakes,” explains Shaw. In these situations, he warns, “there may still be sufficient water of good quality, but it may cost more.” Tracking water rates, he says, will be crucial, “to help make sure any upgrades to water infrastructure can be done in a way that keeps water affordable to everyone in a community.”

The workgroup includes six other experts working alongside Leonard and Shaw: Abraham Francis, Mohawk Council of Akwesasne; David Hermann, Retired (U.S. Department of State); Laureline Josset, Columbia University, Columbia Water Center; Kris May, Pathways Climate Institute; Ben Wright, Hazen and Sawyer; and Kiyoko Yokota, SUNY College at Oneonta. A diverse set of advisors will help the workgroup ensure that assessment results and products are accessible and relevant for all.

A thorough understanding of these risks to our water resources and infrastructure allows us to better prepare. The Water Resources workgroup aims to provide decision-makers and residents statewide with actionable information about how climate change will affect their communities. The workgroup’s scope includes critical issues such as water supply, water governance, wastewater and stormwater management, and infrastructure. Water resources are also a key consideration for many other sectors covered by the assessment: “Water is connected to many issues statewide, including ecosystem health, energy generation, building damage, and public health,” Shaw emphasizes. Workgroup members are collaborating across disciplines to ensure these interconnections are reflected throughout the assessment.

The co-chairs underscore the many nuances and variations of climate change effects, along with the need to understand them for better preparation. “A process like the Climate Assessment provides an opportunity to think through and plan for potential problems long before a crisis exists, ultimately leading to better decisions that minimize economic, social, and environmental impacts,” Shaw says. To protect and improve our water systems, we must start with actionable knowledge; the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment will provide and disseminate that knowledge, for the livelihood of all those who call the state home.

Subscribe and follow us on Twitter (@NYSClimate) to keep up with the latest news and information about the assessment.

Next edition: NYS Climate Assessment Spotlight: Transportation.

Fostering Resilient Energy Systems in Light of a Changing Climate

August 30, 2022

Energy systems power New York State—literally. When they are reliable and well-functioning, it can be easy to forget about the complex mechanisms that keep our lights on, our homes cooled or heated, and our workplaces, hospitals, schools, grocery stores, pharmacies, and other essentials up and running. Even though turning on the lights is one of the first things we might do in the morning, how they come on is probably one of the last things on our minds.

Providing reliable energy is an intricate process that depends on many entities. In the case of electricity, it’s generated from resources (like solar panels, wind turbines, or power plants that burn fossil fuels), then transmitted to its user (think: power lines). Natural gas and liquid fuels are transported and stored through a complex system and go through many stages of processing before being distributed to consumers. Much of the energy system was designed for the climate of the past—not the more extreme climate we see in our future. So, though it was built with stability and reliability in mind, the system has vulnerabilities.

When damage and disruption to the electric power system occurs, power outages, “brownouts,” and cost increases for rate payers often follow, with the potential to profoundly disrupt the way we live our lives and conduct business. What happens when our lights don’t come on, our fridge doesn’t stay cool and keep our food safe, and things we need—from phone chargers to medical equipment—don’t have the power to function? How can we ensure that our systems will sustain us in the years to come?

These are the questions that climate change is demanding we ask—now. “Loss of power has obvious consequences to health and safety,” Sandra Meier, co-chair of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment energy technical workgroup, asserts. Meier is the director of the Environmental Energy Alliance of New York, and she also provides technical analyses, strategic planning, and policy development for the energy sector.

A changing climate is expected to bring about more extreme storms and impacts like wildfires, droughts, and floods. These extreme events can damage energy systems, leading to more power outages and more harm to our communities. And as temperature extremes become more common, cold snaps and heat waves increase the demand for electricity and other fuels, including natural gas (which both heats many buildings and generates much of New York’s electricity). The more we turn our thermostats up or our air conditioners down, the greater strain we put on our energy systems, sometimes causing them to fail.

The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment energy workgroup is no stranger to these challenges, and they’re studying them intensively to scaffold a climate-smart future for our energy systems. The workgroup’s analysis of current and projected climate impacts will consider critical steps for the future, such as how to protect existing energy systems from flooding and extreme weather and ensure reliable operations of new and existing facilities under changing climate conditions like sea-level rise and drought. Co-chairing the group with Meier are Susanne DesRoches, who serves as vice president of Clean and Resilient Buildings for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), and Peter Marcotullio, a professor in the Department of Geography at Hunter College and director of the City University of New York Institute for Sustainable Cities.

Meier, DesRoches, and Marcotullio are committed to making sure that the team’s findings are relevant, useful, and accessible for all New Yorkers—especially historically underserved and overburdened communities. They are engaging with community leaders and stakeholders from across the state in acknowledgement that the impacts of climate change do not affect all communities equally. For low-income communities that already lack access to reliable energy sources, for example, the risks and consequences of losing power can be greater. Underserved urban neighborhoods, often including communities of color, are already more susceptible to extreme heat and may have older infrastructure. For people with disabilities or chronic illnesses who rely on medical equipment or timely care, power outages can have life-threatening consequences.

“A critical component of the energy section of the assessment is the inclusion of energy justice,” Marcotullio says. “Examining these issues, particularly in vulnerable communities, will improve New York State’s adaptation strategies.” According to the U.S. Census, about 13 percent of the state’s population is under the federal poverty threshold—and studies show that low-income households spend more of their income on energy than the national median. “New York State has a significant climate- and energy-vulnerable population,” Marcotullio explains. “Assessing issues like the disproportionate energy burden on some communities in the state will help to provide policy-relevant information for a just energy transition and climate-just energy adaptation strategies.”

The energy workgroup is also aware of and looking into the challenges of embracing renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower. A powerful tool to mitigate emissions that worsen climate change, renewable energy—paradoxically—has its own vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. For example, hydropower can be vulnerable to drought, and changing wind speeds and patterns could affect offshore wind potential. Because the New York State Climate Act requires an 85 percent reduction in energy-related emissions by 2050 (and creating a carbon-free electric grid is key to reaching this goal), New York will be increasing its use of renewable energy resources, all while working to ensure that energy remains reliable. This focus on reliability is, Meier notes, “particularly critical for the early years of the transition, where there will still be a need for fossil [fuel] support as we install new energy resources and build an expanded transmission system that can withstand the changing climate.” To best help decision-makers navigate these transitions, the assessment team is considering the full scope of challenges to come.

The workgroup includes eight other experts working alongside DesRoches and Meier: Jeff Freedman, University at Albany, State University of New York; Justin Gundlach, Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University School of Law; Jordi Parisian, New York Power Authority (NYPA); Peter Sheehan, New York State Department of Public Service; William Slade, Con Edison of New York; Maureen Golan, NYPA; Lemir Teron, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry; and Ke Wei, NYSERDA. A diverse set of advisors will help the workgroup ensure that assessment results and products are accessible and relevant for all.

So, while many (or even most) of us may not think about the intricate journey of energy delivery every time we turn on the lights, by better understanding the system and its vulnerabilities to a changing climate, we can take the actions needed to plan for and invest in resilience. The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment is providing the information, insights, and projections needed to generate a climate-smart future—so that communities across New York State have the energy they need to thrive.

Subscribe and follow us on Twitter (@NYSClimate) to keep up with the latest news and information about the assessment.

Next edition: NYS Climate Assessment Spotlight: Water Resources.

The Impacts of Climate Change Stress Already-Stressed Communities Across New York State

June 17, 2022

New York State is feeling the effects of climate change. Temperatures are increasing; sea levels are rising; extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense. Undoubtedly, a thorough understanding of climate impacts is crucial for climate action. But for action to be effective for all, we must also understand how these impacts vary for different communities and population groups, and how some impacts are worsened by social, economic, and ecological inequities that already exist.

Due to existing inequities, many communities are hit harder by climate change, often without adequate resources or support to prepare for hazards, recover from them, or reduce their impacts. Low-income communities, for example, may not have housing that can withstand extreme weather, adequate emergency or health care, or insurance to help them recover from disasters. Some populations, too, are more exposed to climate impacts; for example, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 2021 Social Vulnerability Report, Black and African American individuals are “40 percent more likely to live in areas with the highest projected increases in extreme temperature-related deaths.”

“It’s not simply about vulnerability to sea level rise, heat waves, or being afflicted by a superstorm,” explains Dr. Lemir Teron, assistant professor of environmental studies at the State University of New York and a member of the Energy workgroup for the New York State Climate Change Impacts Assessment. “It’s all those challenges in addition to contending with the legacy of racial inequality and the pervasiveness of poverty, uninsured households, and medically underserved communities.”

Teron and several other experts from across the assessment’s eight sectors have come together to form an equity and justice team, which aims to ensure that equity and justice are prioritized throughout the assessment. Their group is helping the larger assessment team highlight equity and justice at every stage of the work, from planning and research to outreach and dissemination. To truly function as a tool that serves all New Yorkers, the assessment must evaluate and communicate how climate change will affect each of the many communities that call this state home.

What’s more, data about climate change—a necessity for climate action—is not accessible for everyone. Health and Safety workgroup member Dr. Anjali Sauthoff, chair of the health and community resilience teams of the Westchester County Climate Crisis Task Force, explains, “Lack of data collection can itself be an injustice—if there is no data, there is often no awareness of a need for course correction.” Data, and tools that allow communities to use that data, are necessary to develop climate-smart strategies at any level. “Even when data capacity in communities does exist,” Sauthoff adds, “it is not held equitably across groups of people, organizations, and institutions”—a potential disparity that can leave groups who lack access to the data less able to plan and prepare for climate change. “Communities are at the front lines of climate impacts—they require relevant local data and knowledge to organize, plan, and implement at the community level.”

The workgroup is building equity and justice into the very framework of the assessment, so that its findings, data, and tools are accessible to, responsive to, and actionable for all communities—and provide decision-makers with knowledge to better address inequity. “We’re all in agreement that environmental justice and equity really need to be woven into the text throughout, recognized at each juncture, rather than tacked on at the end as a consideration,” states Dr. F. Garrett Boudinot, a member of the assessment’s Ecosystems workgroup and research associate at Cornell University. “Environmental justice is a foundational lens through which to view all climate change impacts.”

The equity and justice team, Boudinot explains, has developed a guide to help each sector’s technical workgroup include, frame, and address key equity and justice issues in their respective sections of the assessment, ensuring that these concerns are core components of the final product.

The equity and justice team comprises experts from across the assessment’s technical workgroups, including Allison Chatrchyan (Agriculture), Garrett Boudinot (Ecosystems), David Burgy (Society and Economy), Andrea Cristina Ruiz (Transportation), Hua Cai (Transportation), Anjali Sauthoff (Health and Safety), and Lemir Teron (Energy).

And while a primary aim of the assessment is to create an equitable, up-to-date foundation for climate action across all of New York State, the team also seeks to build upon the important work that many organizations and communities are already doing. “Leveraging this report as a way to raise awareness of existing tools, and existing groups doing great work on this, is an additional goal for us,” notes Boudinot. Some of the team members’ own professional backgrounds provide firsthand expertise on these types of community projects and opportunities; for example, Teron is working on a research and community outreach campaign in Central New York focused on urban forestry, which can help cool communities and reduce flooding impacts, “putting urban forestry tools in the hands of residents, along with stipend-supported training.” Meanwhile, Sauthoff works with geospatial mapping tools, which can help communities, including those often excluded from planning processes, visualize and communicate climate and health data.

“Typically,” Sauthoff states, “the topic of equity and justice across communities is approached through a deficit lens, focusing on weaknesses and voids.” But identifying community assets, opportunities, and shared values is an effective step that can’t be left out of climate action. “Considering what communities have, how they collectively act, and for whom—this is essential for creating greater community resilience.” By highlighting equity and justice as part of its framework, the assessment can provide not only a picture of how climate change will impact New York State, but also a foundation for climate action that accounts for the ways communities are unique and will experience and respond to climate change differently.

At the end of the day, when it comes to climate change, “We’re past the ‘how bad will it be?’ phase globally,” says Boudinot, “and now securely in the ‘what are we going to do about it?’ phase.” Democratizing environmental science tools and knowledge, Teron notes, is one major step in the right direction, along with forward-thinking policy. Ultimately, to help get there, the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment is committed to serving all of New York State. Equity and justice are not an afterthought—they are a necessity.

Subscribe and follow us on Twitter (@NYSClimate) to keep up with the latest news and information about the assessment.

Next edition: NYS Climate Assessment Spotlight: Energy.

The Climate Crisis Is Also a Health Crisis—We’re Studying What That Means for New York State

April 27, 2022

In September 2021, more than 200 medical journals across the globe published a statement by 19 editors of leading medical and health journals—one of the largest-scale editorials ever run. Its message was unequivocal: our changing climate, and the cascade of impacts in its wake, “risk catastrophic harm to health that will be impossible to reverse.” The continued warming of the climate, the authors wrote, constitutes “the greatest threat to global public health.”

Given these implications, Dr. Janice Barnes—co-chair of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment’s human health and safety technical workgroup—notes that it’s surprising that health has not often been central to climate hazard mitigation and adaptation investments. Instead, Barnes says, the workgroup recognizes that “capital loss risk continues to lead climate discussions, outside of health professional environments.” As a founder of Climate Adaptation Partners, Barnes prioritizes the relationship between climate change and public health—a relationship that, research shows, deserves more weight in climate-related investments.

Climate change poses many threats to people’s health and safety across New York State. For example, more severe heat waves can lead to more heat-related illnesses, like heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Warmer temperatures can also create prime conditions for ticks to expand their range, potentially increasing the risk of illnesses like Lyme disease. Flooding can contaminate water supplies and spread waterborne illnesses. Rising sea levels can drive displacement. Extreme weather, like storms and floods, can cause physical injuries and mental health effects, including post-traumatic stress disorder. These are just some of the possible direct effects of climate change on health in New York State, and they are not expected to be isolated incidents; communities can be affected by multiple impacts, compounding people’s risk of harm.

And then, too, there are the indirect impacts, like risks to the systems we rely on to stay well and safe. Extreme weather can cause power outages and damage buildings, not only leaving people vulnerable at home, but also threatening the ability of medical facilities and equipment to function. People may have difficulty accessing emergency or medical care when storm debris blocks roads or flood waters make transit stops inaccessible. During heat waves or disease outbreaks, facilities may be overwhelmed and struggle to accommodate all of the community’s needs (something we’ve already witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic). The many interconnected systems and services that are critical to our health—including medical care, buildings and energy, food and water, transportation, and our natural environments—are vulnerable to climate impacts. To inform climate-smart decision-making, the workgroup is highlighting the need to ensure that, in hazard mitigation and adaptation investments, health is a central concern.

Barnes and fellow co-chair Dr. Perry Sheffield also emphasize that climate impacts affect some groups far more than others—a reality that is a crucial factor in future planning. “To support communities to achieve and maintain wellbeing,” Sheffield states, “we need to transform how we ask questions about health, what linkages we make, and whose voices and lives are valued.” Sheffield, an associate professor in environmental medicine and public health and pediatrics at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai, studies the health effects of climate change with a focus on children—one example of a vulnerable group due to their growing bodies, developing brains, and dependence on caretakers.

A variety of factors can put certain people and groups at higher risk of harm from climate change, including how and when they are exposed to hazards, and the resources available to them to avoid or reduce the impact of those hazards. Outdoor workers, for example, may be more exposed to heat and weather, making them vulnerable to illness and injury. Food-insecure families may be disproportionately affected when storms or floods disrupt distribution systems. For people with chronic illnesses or disabilities, climate threats can prevent access to home health aides, medications, or important medical care. And many groups—including immigrants, communities of color, tribal communities, and disabled people—have historically been excluded from local planning processes, like facility siting, wealth building, and community stabilization opportunities (such as home ownership or income protection programs), leaving their neighborhoods more susceptible to harm as climate change progresses. Given that well-being and equity are inextricably linked, the workgroup is carefully evaluating how climate impacts will affect different populations in different ways.

Ultimately, when it comes to decision-making, “the intersection of climate change and human health warrants much greater attention in hazard mitigation and adaptation planning,” Barnes asserts. The assessment serves as a tool to improve and prioritize decision-making at this intersection. For instance, a core theme of the workgroup’s current efforts is the “one health” approach, which recognizes that human health is closely connected to the health of animals and the environment. The workgroup is also paying close attention to—and trying to further understand—the relationship between direct and indirect health impacts, as many people will experience multiple hazards and exposures with a wide range of effects.

Barnes and Sheffield are working closely with eight other leaders in the workgroup: Nathan Graber, Albany Medical Center; Sonal Jessel, WE ACT for Environmental Justice; Kevin Lanza, UTHealth School of Public Health in Austin; Vijay Limaye, Natural Resources Defense Council; Faustenia Morrow, Monarch of Infinite Possibilities; Anjali Sauthoff, Westchester County Government Consultant; Michael Schmeltz, California State University, East Bay; and Shavonne Smith, Shinnecock Indian Nation Environmental Department. The workgroup is also supported by a diverse group of advisors who will help ensure that assessment results and products are accessible and relevant for all.

Despite the gap in climate decision-making and investments when it comes to health outcomes, Sheffield points out the notable “growth and maturation of the field of climate health impacts over the past decade.” Building on this growth, the workgroup is emphasizing the need to integrate public health and safety into hazard mitigation and adaptation. The assessment team aims to provide leaders and communities statewide with actionable, relevant information about where climate and health impacts meet, broadening opportunities for better outcomes via health-centric climate investments. The data are loud and clear that climate change is affecting our health and impairing efforts toward health equity—and the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment team is moving that message front and center for climate planning.

Next edition: NYS Climate Assessment Spotlight: Equity and Justice.

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A Natural Balancing Act: Ecosystems and Climate Change in New York State

February 15, 2022

While ecosystems like forests, wetlands, lakes, and streams may not be at the forefront of every person’s mind, they play a crucial role in just about every aspect of daily life—in New York State and across the globe. They offer a wide range of benefits, or “ecosystem services,” that support our communities and economies. Among their many crucial services, ecosystems clean our air and water; maintain healthy soils; sustain much of the food we eat; provide spaces for recreation; and support livelihoods, from fisheries to tourism and more.

To function, ecosystems need balance: conditions that allow the organisms in the system to work with one another. However, New York State’s ecosystems are at risk of negative effects from a changing climate. Rising temperatures, for instance, may lead to more invasive species and pests, upsetting intricate natural balances. Meanwhile, more frequent and intense rainfall could cause flooding and erosion, which can contaminate water and disrupt aquatic life.

The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment’s ecosystems technical workgroup, led by co-chairs Sheila Hess and Doug Burns, is studying the effects of climate change to better understand how to protect our ecosystems. Hess, a principal ecologist and CEO at CC Environment & Planning, works with local, state, and regional partners to integrate natural resource conservation and climate resilience into land-use planning, ecosystem management, and economic development strategies. She leverages her 22 years of experience in ecology, conservation, and planning with her broad network of peers to create collaborative and interdisciplinary solutions that serve as catalysts for sustainable change.

As a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research hydrologist, Dr. Burns’ principal research focus is how human activities affect ecosystems and watersheds, with an emphasis on climate change and air pollution effects. He coordinates two USGS environmental monitoring programs and leads state-, national-, and international-scale projects. Burns has authored more than 130 peer-reviewed publications and holds a Ph.D. in Water Resources Management from SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry.

According to Hess and Burns, New York State’s ecosystems face a number of stressors as the climate continues to change. For example, Hess notes that climate impacts can threaten the stability of native species, such as the eastern hemlock, spotted salamander, and brook trout. A climate-driven rise in invasive species—including insects and ticks—also poses risks to native plant and wildlife species.

Hess and Burns are working closely with eight other leaders in the workgroup: Garrett Boudinot, Cornell University; Carrie Brown-Lima, Cornell University; Jason Corwin, SUNY Buffalo; John Foppert, Paul Smith’s College; George Robinson, University at Albany; Kevin Rose, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; Matt Schlesinger, New York Natural Heritage Program; and Rebecca Shuford, New York Sea Grant. The workgroup is also supported by a diverse group of advisors who will help ensure that assessment results and products are accessible and relevant for all.

“Climate change is promoting the northward advancement of many invasive species, such as deer ticks,” says Burns. Deer ticks are known for spreading Lyme disease, which can lead to chronic illness if not treated early. And it’s not just humans at risk: ticks, Burns adds, are causing mortality in other species, such as moose in the Northeast. As the climate continues to change, more intense droughts and warmer temperatures will continue to affect biodiversity and stress the balance of ecosystems. Another impact of these changes already occurring in New York State’s waters is an increase in harmful algal blooms, which are influenced by water temperature and can make people sick.

Nevertheless, when it comes to a climate-smart future, knowledge about climate change is power. “Understanding and projecting impacts of warmer temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and longer growing seasons,” says Hess, “will help natural resource managers, municipalities, and landowners prepare and adapt viable conservation strategies.”

It is also critical, she notes, that the ecosystems technical workgroup pay close attention to environmental justice as they study these climate projections. Some people—such as those from low-income, under-represented, and/or under-served communities—are at a higher risk of experiencing climate change impacts. For example, changes in temperature and precipitation can affect native plant and animal species that are culturally significant and sacred to Indigenous communities. Across the state, people with fewer resources may be more affected by air quality issues, heat stress, food insecurity, and damage from floods and storms. And in urban settings, trees support air quality, recreation, and public health (including much-needed shade to moderate excessive urban heat, which affects low-income neighborhoods most)—but these “urban forests” are especially sensitive to climate change effects. Ultimately, only a study that considers the most vulnerable will be most effective in helping to develop a resilient future for all.

Nature itself plays a critical role in resilience and adaptation. When we protect it, it protects us. Natural dune systems, flood plains, healthy soil, green spaces, and myriad other features promote healthy life each and every day. The Climate Impacts Assessment is evaluating the ways New York State can protect its natural systems and, in turn, its people.

Next edition: NYS Climate Assessment Sector Spotlight: Human Health and Safety.

Subscribe and follow us on Twitter (@NYSClimate) to keep up with the latest news and information about the assessment.