Projections and Modeling

Climate projections and economic modeling ensure that the assessment reflects the current state of the science.

Future Climate Projections

Climate projections for New York State estimate how physical variables like temperature, rainfall, heat waves, heavy storms, and sea level may change between now and the end of this century. The team used the newest global climate models—a group of models called the CMIP6 suite, which are widely accepted as the most up-to-date tools—and applied them to New York State, generating specific projections for each region of the state and comparing them with historical data.

Economic Analysis

Economic analysis estimates the economic costs and benefits that could result from New York’s changing climate. Using the climate projections as a starting point, the team has been using the best available models to translate physical climate changes into monetary impacts on New York’s communities, businesses, and ecosystems. The analysis includes estimated costs and benefits for individual sectors and for the state economy overall. The economic analysis is currently under development and will be published at a later date.