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Methods and Sources

Methods and Sources

To conduct the assessment, Technical Workgroups (TWGs) gathered evidence on the anticipated impacts from climate change through a systematic literature review, compiled the information in a technical chapter for their sector, weighed the evidence collected, and developed key findings and traceable accounts. A detailed explanation of the assessment’s methods and sources can be found in the Assessment Introduction.

Key findings represent important takeaways identified by the TWGs. They attempt to convey:

  • The “What?” Current challenges, circumstances, facts, observations, and projections.
  • The “So what?” The implications and meaning, including underlying assumptions.
  • The “Now what?” Potential actions, trade-offs, and resources needed to address the challenges, as well as knowledge gaps.

Key findings focus on impacts, responses, and solutions. Each TWG also included information in its key findings about equity considerations, including disproportionate impacts, vulnerabilities, and solutions. 

Traceable accounts provide supporting evidence for each of the key findings. They describe supporting information and the level of confidence in each finding, allowing interested readers to “trace” the rationale and information sources the TWGs used to develop each finding. Traceable accounts include:

  • The evidence that supports each key finding
  • The quality of the evidence
  • The ranges of estimates or interpretations in the literature
  • Assumptions and their implications for what was or was not considered
  • The level of agreement in the literature
  • Key uncertainties
  • The TWG’s level of confidence in the key finding

Sources Used in the Assessment  

The goal of this assessment is to capture the best available information about observed and projected impacts of climate change in New York State by drawing upon:  

  • Peer-reviewed literature.
  • “Gray literature” (information produced outside of formal publishing and distribution channels), such as government or private-sector reports, working papers, and white papers.
  • Data generated as part of the assessment, following peer-reviewed methods (for example, climate projections developed by Columbia University for this assessment).
  • Traditional knowledge (for example, Indigenous knowledges).
  • Case studies, news media, and firsthand accounts (for example, interviews).

Each TWG assessed the relative quality of sources and, in some cases, gave more weight to peer-reviewed studies than to less rigorously reviewed data sources.

As this list demonstrates, however, the assessment was not restricted to scientific, peer-reviewed journal articles. Peer-reviewed literature has not always captured Indigenous and other historically marginalized voices or the experiences of individuals who observe and respond to climate impacts directly. Therefore, the assessment team sought to capture that information through firsthand accounts from New Yorkers with direct lived experience (for example, interviews with farmers).

Public Access  

For transparency and credibility, every source used in the assessment is citable and publicly accessible. Sources such as proprietary or other confidential reports were not used. This ensures that the assessment is built on information that is available to any user. Publicly accessible sources include:  

  • Information posted publicly online.
  • Resources that can be obtained through reasonable effort, such as using a library subscription or purchasing from a publisher.
  • Traditional or personal knowledge that interested parties can learn more about by referencing online resources or contacting an interviewee listed in a citation.

Geographic Scope  

Information relevant to New York State or portions of the state was of primary importance. However, in some instances, the TWGs incorporated information from outside of New York State when doing so filled a gap or provided additional relevant evidence, context, or scientific rigor.  

Temporal Coverage  

A primary goal of the assessment is to be current. Each TWG cited any source that they felt was appropriate, relevant, and accurate, regardless of age. However, literature searches primarily focused on science published since the 2011 ClimAID assessment. Many of the sources reflect information available as of mid-2022, which was the initial cutoff for inclusion in the assessment. More recent sources were incorporated in some cases to fill specific information gaps. 

Physical Climate Modeling  

A team from Columbia University developed updated climate science projections for New York State by using global climate models that simulate how physical variables like temperature, rainfall, heat waves, intense storms, and sea level are likely to change between now and 2100 (or 2150 for sea level), as well as by conducting literature reviews.

Information on the climate projections can be found in New York State’s Changing Climate. Additional information about the methods behind Columbia’s climate projections, including key uncertainties, sources of baseline data, and a comparison with projections used in the state’s 2011 and 2014 ClimAID assessments, can be found in the methodology report.