Energy Chapter Summary
Energy powers New York State’s economy, moves people and goods, keeps homes and workplaces at a livable temperature, and runs critical infrastructure that keeps people healthy and safe. Reliable energy systems are easy to take for granted, but many parts of these systems are at risk from climate hazards.
This summary provides an overview of climate change impacts on the state’s energy sector. It includes a synopsis of key climate change hazards, equity and justice considerations, impacts on Indigenous Peoples and Tribal Nations, key findings from the assessment’s Energy chapter, and opportunities for
the future.
Climate Change Hazards and Impacts on New York State’s Energy System
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New York’s energy system is vulnerable to several key climate change hazards that can have wide-ranging impacts on how energy is produced, transmitted, and used:
- Increasing temperatures. Rising temperatures can make natural gas-fired, oil-fired, wind, and solar resources less efficient at generating electricity. More frequent and intense extreme heat and multi-day heat waves could also result in substantial increases in energy use and cause parts of the electrical grid to fail, leading to power outages.
- Changes in precipitation. Climate change is projected to lead to more extreme precipitation events in New York State. Heavy rain and flooding can damage energy infrastructure, impair operations, and prevent workers from accessing and fixing energy equipment. More variability in precipitation, including both heavy rain and short-term drought, could have impacts on hydrogeneration.
- Sea level rise. Salt water from sea level rise can corrode infrastructure. Increased coastal flooding can block access to energy facilities. Higher sea levels also worsen coastal flooding during a storm event, posing further risks to energy infrastructure. Much of the state’s fuel infrastructure is in coastal areas, making it particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise.
- Storms with high winds. High winds can damage above-ground electricity transmission lines and utility poles, or cause transmission towers to buckle. A particularly large or long-lasting storm or high wind event could curtail a large amount of wind generation.
Climate Equity and Justice
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Everyone deserves to live, learn, work, and play in a safe and healthy environment, even as the climate changes. That is climate equity. However, some groups are more exposed to climate change hazards, are more at risk of harm, or have fewer resources to recover and adapt. This is often the case among historically underserved and underrepresented groups of people. Working to help these groups adapt to climate impacts is a form of climate justice.
Some communities in New York State face more hardships related to energy while receiving less of the benefits. Certain communities have higher energy costs than others and may also have energy infrastructure that is in poorer condition. In addition, research has shown that power is slower to be restored to rural and Black communities than other areas in the aftermath of outages.
Decision-making around the siting of energy facilities and infrastructure does not always include the communities that host the new infrastructure. As New York State’s energy system adapts to a changing climate, community involvement will be important to ensure that all communities share in the benefits and burdens of the changing energy system. Responding to climate change gives the state an opportunity to work toward a more just and resilient energy system in which all racial, ethnic, Indigenous, and socioeconomic groups have equitable benefits of resilient energy infrastructure.
Indigenous Peoples and Tribal Nations
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There are eight federally recognized Tribal Nations and one state-recognized Nation in New York State, as well as several other Indigenous communities that maintain ties to the state and live in surrounding states. The colonization and dispossession of Tribal lands, as well as forced migration to lower-quality lands, have contributed to the climate risks Indigenous Peoples face.
Previous energy resource decisions made in New York State have had destructive impacts on Indigenous livelihoods and cultural practices, created conditions for high energy burdens and insecurity, and increased vulnerability to climate change.
Electricity access is also generally lower on Tribal reservations than elsewhere. No major power plants are located on Tribal lands in New York, and many reservations have homes scattered over large areas, far from a utility grid. These factors—along with the lack of backup generation for power outages, poor access to broadband, and lack of financing—contribute to the energy vulnerabilities Indigenous communities face due to climate change.
In New York State, several Tribes have created climate change adaptation plans to address these issues, with solutions that include using distributed renewable energy (which reduces vulnerabilities associated with being connected to the grid).
Climate Change and New York State’s Energy Sector: Technical Workgroup Key Findings
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Technical workgroups for each of the assessment’s eight sectors developed key findings focused on climate change impacts, responses, and solutions. More detail on the energy key findings and the evidence base for each can be found in the full Energy chapter.
Climate change is already constraining some sources of energy supply and stressing transmission and distribution infrastructure through extreme heat, changes in precipitation, and increasing storm intensity.
- Rising temperatures can lead to decreases in electricity supply from fossil-based generation like natural gas power plants, reduced efficiency in solar panels, and less power output from wind turbines. Warmer temperatures also reduce battery storage capacity, efficiency, and lifetime. High temperatures can lead to planned power interruptions to protect critical transmission and distribution equipment, preventing damage that would cause longer outages. Extreme heat can also increase electricity use when widespread use of air conditioners is needed. Increased use of electricity can exceed the capacity of neighborhood power lines, reduce the ability to transmit power, and increase component failure rates. When it is too hot outside, utility workers cannot work, which can prolong power disruptions.
- High winds from storms can damage overhead power lines by blowing debris and trees against the lines, blowing over utility poles, and causing transmission towers to buckle. High winds from hurricanes are projected to pose risks to energy delivery infrastructure, mostly in coastal areas of the state.
- Heavy precipitation that causes flooding can damage key control and operations equipment for electricity supply and prevent workers from accessing it. For example, power line access roads may wash out and become unusable, making it a struggle for utility crews to reach and fix downed equipment; this can lead to longer times to restore power. Heavy precipitation and flooding also pose a risk of erosion and landslides, which can further damage and block access to energy infrastructure—especially facilities in low-lying areas. Intense rainfall may also threaten infrastructure and operations and maintenance for smaller hydroelectric generation facilities. In urban areas, heavy precipitation can flood electrical equipment manholes and cause power outages.
What Can We Do?
Utilities and agencies charged with safeguarding energy generation and supply systems are engaged in planning and policy-setting activities that take climate hazards into account. For example, the New York Independent System Operator has incorporated future climate change into all planning and electric system demand activities. The New York State Public Service Commission required the state’s major electric utilities to perform climate change vulnerability studies and develop resilience plans in 2023.
Newer technologies can also improve the resilience of the electric system. These technologies include microgrids; hybrid renewable (i.e., solar and wind) systems coupled with energy storage; equipment that can control demand during periods of high use, such as smart meters; and systems that can help utilities manage and respond to power outages.
Installing flood protection systems, moving electricity and natural gas assets away from floodways, building redundancies in the electrical and natural gas systems, stocking spare components, building or reinforcing infrastructure to higher elevations, and installing critical equipment at higher elevations can also help protect the state’s electric and natural gas infrastructure.
Continuing to assess climate impacts and making investments to improve energy system design and operation will help ensure the safe, reliable operation of the energy system.
Patterns of energy demand are shifting due to climate change and are expected to continue evolving over the coming decades.
Rising temperatures are expected to increase the demand for cooling and decrease the demand for heating over time. This is projected to raise electricity demand and lower natural gas demand. Heat waves, which are projected to become longer, more frequent, and more intense across New York State, increase the demand for electricity needed to cool buildings and run critical equipment. These changing patterns of energy demand can strain energy supply and delivery systems, especially when demand is highest. Demand beyond what the power transmission and distribution lines are designed for may also lead to infrastructure failure, power outages, and energy price increases.
What Can We Do?
Ensuring reliable energy supply and delivery will require a number of solutions. These include investing in new energy infrastructure, strengthening current energy infrastructure, incorporating climate models into energy planning, and using demand-side management programs that help monitor and manage energy demand.
Small-scale generation systems placed near sites of electricity use are called distributed energy resources. Some distributed energy solutions can help manage demand during periods of high demand. For example, distributed solar provides electricity to buildings, reducing the overall need for electricity from the grid. When designed appropriately and combined with energy storage like batteries, distributed energy systems can add resilience by providing backup or reserve power to support individual buildings.
As New York State’s energy system becomes more electrified and more reliant on emission-free electricity supply sources, new approaches will be needed to adapt to climate change and ensure the system is flexible, safe, resilient, and cost-effective.
Electricity supply in the state is expected to include more emission-free resources, such as solar, offshore wind, and battery storage. New York’s Climate Act mandates that 70% of the state’s electricity be from renewable energy by 2030 and that 100% of electricity be zero-emissions by 2040. Over the coming years, the transmission system will expand to accommodate more renewable energy and electrification of systems such as heating and transportation, as well as addressing constraints that currently affect the transmission of power. Given these changes, climate adaptation for current and future energy supply and transmission components is critical.
What Can We Do?
Adapting to a changing energy system involves integrating technical, economic, regulatory, and social solutions to increase reliability and performance, reduce cost, and minimize environmental impacts. Solutions such as demand-side behavior changes, grid operational adjustments, investments in electric system capacities, and new technologies that account for the changing energy system can mitigate the effects of climate change on New York’s energy system. For example, charging electric vehicles overnight, when electricity demand is low, is a demand-side behavior change that people can make to help increase the resilience of the state’s energy system. Another example is to couple long-duration battery storage with renewables to help make sure that clean energy is always available even when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.
Climate change could result in unequal impacts across communities due to existing inequalities and burdens in New York State’s energy system, especially as the system evolves.
Communities do not experience energy benefits and energy burdens equally. In particular, people of color, Indigenous Peoples, and low-income households experience greater energy burdens than other groups. For example, both urban and rural low-income households spend roughly three times as much of their income, compared to higher-income households, on energy. Historical housing and zoning policies have left many of these communities exposed to higher levels of pollution from fossil-based energy generation and other industries. In addition, these households are often more susceptible to physical climate change impacts such as extreme storms and heat waves.
As the state transitions to more renewable energy as a way to mitigate and adapt to climate change, all groups need the opportunity to share in the benefits of a more resilient, cleaner energy system.
What Can We Do?
Energy injustices can be addressed through programs aimed at diversifying the workforce, providing help for weatherization, improving energy efficiency, and providing access to renewable energy. For example, energy assistance programs help make energy services more affordable to those facing cost challenges. Energy efficiency and weatherization programs, including home audits, help reduce customers’ energy demand and costs. To increase awareness of and access to the fast-growing clean energy job sector, NYSERDA is coordinating with industry experts, labor organizations, training programs, academic institutions, and other state agencies to ensure that both new and existing workers will be prepared to participate in expanding clean energy industries such as offshore wind.
Opportunities for the Energy Sector
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While climate change poses significant risks to New York State’s energy sector, there may be some positive outcomes and opportunities as well. For example, warming winters will decrease demand for heating fuel. Space heating is the largest energy expense in the average New York home, and heating costs are responsible for the largest share of the energy burden many residents face. Energy supply and delivery challenges associated with very cold temperatures could also become less common over time as temperatures increase.
There will also be benefits and opportunities associated with the state’s efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change through the transition to cleaner, more efficient energy. These include increased job opportunities, environmental health and air quality improvements, less volatile energy costs, and enhanced building resilience.
Emerging Research Topics
Researchers continue to study the ways climate change will affect the energy systems in New York State. This assessment revealed gaps in knowledge that would be valuable to fill with new research, such as:
- Research on climate change’s impact on natural gas demand.
- Identification of the dispatchable emissions-free resources (DEFR) needed to fill or shrink the gap in generation that will result as fossil-fired generation resources are shuttered. DEFR must be developed and deployed throughout New York State to balance intermittent resource generation and load requirements. While not yet commercially available, DEFR will be needed to provide on-demand power and system stability and reliability.
- Collaborative work to identify data requirements, risk mitigation strategies, and adaptation strategies to build a shared, consistent, and informed approach to maintain system reliability and resilience in a changing climate.
- Research on battery storage, including safety/emergency response, performance under various conditions, electric system reliability and resilience, development of long-duration batteries, sustainability of the battery supply chain, and end-of-life disposal.
- Research into the effectiveness of hydrogen production, storage (including long-duration energy storage technologies), transportation, and end uses.
- Research on climate change’s impact on winter weather conditions as they pertain to New York’s energy systems. For example, there is a need for research on the effects of less snowfall and earlier snowmelt on hydropower generation, as well as the impact of warmer weather on residential energy use.
- Further research on climate hazards with higher uncertainty, such as changes in wind conditions, storm intensity, and precipitation—and those changes’ impact on the energy system.
- Research to identify actions and policies that reduce the disproportionate distribution of energy system burdens and benefits and facilitate meaningful participation in energy system decisions.
Conclusions
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New York State’s energy system faces considerable challenges from climate change. Climate change is already affecting energy supply and distribution and is also expected to affect renewable energy sources as the state transitions to a carbon-free energy system. This transition requires continuing efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. As the state’s energy system becomes more reliant on renewables and distributed resources, new technologies and grid build-out will be needed to ensure the system is reliable, safe, resilient, and affordable.
The safe and reliable operation of the energy system will require new investments, changes to system design and operations, and continuous assessment of climate impacts and their effects on necessities that depend on energy resources.
Learn More
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Read the full Energy chapter to learn more about impacts and adaptation strategies.