This summary provides an overview of climate change impacts on New York State’s ecosystems. It includes a synopsis of key climate change hazards, equity and justice considerations, impacts on Indigenous Peoples and Tribal Nations, key findings from the assessment’s Ecosystems chapter, and opportunities for the future. 

Climate plays a large role in the distribution and function of ecosystems. It also influences the ranges where species can live and their seasonal patterns. The growing season is becoming longer across the state, and winter conditions are becoming milder, with fewer days of frost and snow cover. Water temperatures in oceans, lakes, and rivers are rising. All these changes affect ecosystems and the plants and animals that live in and around them. For example, changes in the growing season can alter the timing of biological activities such as the flowering of plants, the arrival of migrating birds and fish, and when leaves drop in the fall.

Specific climate hazards that are causing measurable changes in New York State’s ecosystems include:

• Sea level rise.
• Temperature change.
• Changes in the amount and intensity of precipitation.
• Extreme weather events.

Climate hazards also occur in combination with other existing factors that can stress ecosystems. These non-climate factors include:

• Land use (e.g., land development and agricultural practices).
• Land and water management (e.g., the regulation of Great Lakes water levels).
• Air pollution.
• Invasive species, nuisance species, pathogens, and pests.

Everyone deserves to live, learn, work, and play in a safe and healthy environment, even as the climate changes. That is climate equity. However, some groups are more exposed to climate change hazards, are more at risk of harm, or have fewer resources to recover and adapt. This is often the case among historically underserved and underrepresented groups of people. Working to help these groups adapt to climate impacts is a form of climate justice.

Several factors—such as location, access to resources, and historical marginalization—can place regions, communities, groups, and individuals at greater risk of harm from climate change impacts on ecosystems. For example:

• Rural communities often have natural resource–dependent economies and have limited financial resources to cope with, respond to, and adapt to climate change. Many Indigenous communities harvest materials from nature for cultural activities (such as basket making) and health care needs (such as herbal medicines). This direct relationship with ecosystems increases vulnerability to ecosystem impacts.
• Urban communities experience more intense impacts from extreme heat due to the heat island effect. While some communities benefit from the regulating service of tree cover, parks and green spaces are unevenly distributed in cities. Low-income communities with less access to green spaces face stronger impacts.

There are eight federally recognized Tribal Nations and one state-recognized Nation in New York State, as well as several other Indigenous communities that maintain ties to the state and live in surrounding states. The colonization and dispossession of Tribal lands, as well as forced migration to lower-quality lands, have contributed to the climate risks Indigenous Peoples face.

Indigenous communities rely on diverse ecosystems and the natural resources they provide, including many plant and animal species valued as traditional foods, medicine, or for their spiritual significance. Indigenous Peoples have long dealt with major environmental justice issues. Degradation and loss of forest, freshwater, and riparian ecosystems make it more difficult for Indigenous communities to fish, hunt, and harvest plants. Changes in precipitation and temperature pose risks to ecosystems in areas already dealing with these environmental justice concerns. For example, warming water temperatures and precipitation changes are threatening populations of fish species that some Indigenous communities commonly harvest for food. In the rivers and creeks of Seneca Nation, warmer waters harm populations of trout and walleye.

Indigenous communities in New York State play an active role in climate change assessment and adaptation. Some Tribal Nations, including the Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe and Shinnecock Indian Nation, have published climate adaptation plans. Other Tribal Nations have active environmental departments that work to address climate impacts and other ecosystem concerns, often in collaboration with partners from government, academia, and nonprofits. Examples of specific adaptation measures Tribal Nations and Indigenous Peoples have used include, ecosystem restoration and conservation, invasive species management, and shoreline stabilization.

Extreme climate events can have large impacts on New York State’s ecosystems, and many types of extreme events are increasing in frequency and intensity as the climate changes.

Extreme climate events, like intense storms, droughts, and heat waves, are becoming more frequent and intense as the climate changes. These extreme events disturb ecosystems because they damage soil, vegetation, and wildlife populations. For example:

• Large storms can wash sediment and nutrients into rivers, leading to harmful algae growth and lower levels of dissolved oxygen. Lower dissolved oxygen levels make it harder for some species to survive. Heavy precipitation leaves all watersheds vulnerable to flooding, which can erode stream banks and damage vegetation.
• In lakes and marine ecosystems, short periods of extreme heat (lasting from weeks to months) can displace species or even kill fish and other aquatic species as water temperatures rise. Extreme precipitation events can flush nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus into these large water bodies, impairing water quality and posing risks to species that live in these waters.

What Can We Do?

Ecosystem management strategies that focus on the impacts of extreme events can help preserve ecosystem services and minimize the loss of future ecosystem function. For instance, improved floodplain management can help protect areas against flooding from heavy precipitation and help manage stormwater that impairs water quality when it flows into water bodies. 

Rising water temperatures will have cascading effects on the composition, range, and distribution of species in New York State’s waters.

Rivers, lakes, and coastal waters in or near New York State have become warmer over the past few decades. As this warming trend continues, species adapted to cold water will seek more favorable habitat in colder waters. Species already adapted to warmer water will move into newly warmed areas that were previously too cold for them. 

In New York State’s coastal waters, there are two primary factors driving this trend: increasing air temperatures and changes in ocean circulation patterns. Some researchers consider the state’s coastal waters to be among the most rapidly warming ecosystems in the world, and the warming is already affecting some species. For example, in the New York–New Jersey Harbor Estuary, populations of fish such as tomcod, striped bass, blueback herring, shad, and eel have all decreased. In Long Island Sound, studies indicate that warming water temperatures are forcing coldwater species northward, while other species are moving in from the south. In rivers, rising water temperatures are reducing populations of temperature-sensitive coldwater species, such as brook trout.

What Can We Do?

Adaptation strategies focused on maintaining coldwater habitats will benefit temperature-stressed species in the coming decades. Examples of these strategies include maintaining connections to coldwater areas where species can seek refuge, improving shade cover where possible, and promoting management practices like dam releases of cold bottom water to lower water temperatures.

Human activities that degrade the environment continue to be more impactful to New York State’s ecosystems than projected climate change impacts alone.

Human activities, such as land development, construction of energy and utility infrastructure, and agriculture, cause a variety of impacts on New York State’s ecosystems. These impacts include deforestation, habitat loss and fragmentation (i.e., the division of habitats into smaller, isolated areas), and air and water pollution. Combined with climate change, these land-use stressors pose a greater threat to ecosystem health than climate change does on its own. For example, development on floodplains limits the ability of shoreline ecosystems to migrate inland in response to flooding and sea level rise, resulting in more serious impacts.

What Can We Do?

Because land-use practices magnify climate change impacts on ecosystems, there are benefits to addressing both climate change and these other, non-climate stressors in adaptation planning. Reducing the impact of land-use stressors could make it possible for plants and animals in an ecosystem to better withstand the effects of a changing climate. For example, minimizing runoff from agricultural practices can benefit ecosystem health by preventing contaminants like fertilizer and pesticides from entering wetlands, lakes, and other waters. 

Preventing habitat fragmentation also helps make ecosystems more resilient. Fragmentation is when habitat areas are split up into smaller, more isolated areas, and it can be caused by roads and development. Creating wildlife corridors, such as bridges and underpasses, improves connectivity by allowing species to move safely around highways and shift their ranges in response to changing climate conditions. 

Sea level rise will substantially alter New York State’s coastal and tidal ecosystems.

New York State’s coasts are experiencing faster rates of sea level rise than the global average. Sea level rise will have major impacts on species habitats and populations, from shellfish and grasses to birds and mammals. 

Coastal groundwater sources could become more saline as sea level rise causes salt water to infiltrate groundwater. This saltwater intrusion into groundwater harms plant communities close to the shore that are not adapted to salt water.

Sea level rise will also amplify the magnitude and damaging effects of storm surges, which could lead to impacts on many ecosystems. Because of rising sea levels, storm surges will carry a greater volume of floodwater and reach further inland, worsening their impact on ecosystems on land and in coastal waters. Receding storm surges can also carry sediments containing metals, plastics, mercury, and other contaminants from the land into coastal ecosystems. 

What Can We Do?

Advances in infrastructure, such as improved sewage management and green infrastructure that uses plants and natural features, can help address the impacts of sea level rise. For example, some types of green infrastructure can help create a buffer against storm surges. However, infrastructure is a more permanent type of adaptation—especially “hard“ or “gray” infrastructure like seawalls—so both the positive and negative impacts of new infrastructure should be carefully considered. In addition, protecting, restoring, and creating wetlands can help support these important ecosystems and the services they provide.  

Climate change is projected to accelerate the introduction, spread, and negative impacts of invasive species in New York State’s ecosystems.

Invasive species are species that are not native to a particular ecosystem and cause economic or environmental harm or threaten human health. The northeastern United States is considered a global “hot spot” for invasive species. New York State is home to hundreds of invasive plants, animals, and pathogens. It has more harmful forest pest species than any other state. Recent invasive species include the emerald ash borer, the hemlock woolly adelgid, and the spotted lanternfly. 

What Can We Do?

New York State is nationally recognized for leadership in invasive species management. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation has added a Bureau of Invasive Species and Ecosystem Health and also funds eight regional partnerships to help manage problems with invasive species. To address the combined threat of climate change and invasive species, the state will need advanced tools for anticipating and detecting the arrival of new invasive species. It will also need improved predictive modeling that employs climate change forecasts. Raising awareness about invasive species and increasing education, outreach, and community engagement will be an important step in resilience efforts. 

A changing climate could produce positive outcomes in some ecosystems or for some species in New York State. In addition, the work of adapting to a changing climate and advancing ecosystem resilience can lead to many additional benefits. Examples of these opportunities include:

• The rise of new fisheries. Warming water temperatures off New York State’s coast may lead to the collapse of some fish populations and existing fisheries, but it could also present opportunities for the state in the future. As some species—like summer flounder and sea bass—increase, new fisheries may arise, along with economic and cultural opportunities.
• Establishment of valuable tree species. Climate change will expand potentially suitable habitat for many southern tree species that are not currently common in the state. Warming temperatures may provide opportunities to enrich some forests and landscapes by planting or encouraging the expansion of tree species that would be valuable to wildlife or have other benefits, like timber production. 
• Co-benefits of ecological connectivity. Efforts to connect fragmented habitats can benefit wildlife species. Better connectivity allows species to shift their ranges in response to climate change. These efforts can also benefit humans. For example, they reduce the likelihood of collisions with animals on roads. They also provide recreational opportunities and scenic natural spaces. Learn more in the Connecting the Dots: Local and Regional Efforts to Facilitate Habitat Continuity in a Changing Climate case study.
• Co-benefits of preserving natural and working lands. Improving the health and functionality of existing ecosystems through best management practices not only enhances climate resilience but also leads to other benefits. Healthy, functioning ecosystems can capture and store carbon, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and protect people and wildlife from the impacts of climate change.
• Addressing environmental justice concerns through the design of resilient urban ecosystems. Efforts to reduce climate impacts on urban ecosystems may also help address long-standing equity and environmental justice concerns. Involving community members in planning and decision-making can result in resilient designs that can benefit all residents and remedy existing inequities.

Emerging Research Topics

Researchers continue to study the ways climate change is affecting ecosystems across New York. Resource managers, scientists, planners, policymakers, and others need to work together to create, test, and improve new technologies and approaches that can enhance climate resilience statewide. Potential areas for research and policy development include:

• Better monitoring of changes in ecosystem condition and composition in response to climate change across all geographic regions and ecosystem types.
• Improved climate modeling for more location-specific projections.
• Integration of Indigenous knowledges into efforts to protect ecosystems.
• Expanded research on topics such as:
  • Thermal tolerances of native fish and other aquatic animals. 
  • How extreme precipitation events that occur during spring spawning periods affect fish populations.
  • How sea level rise will affect salinity profiles in tidal creeks and estuaries, including the lower Hudson River estuary.
  • Other impacts of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems.

In New York State, a changing climate is altering all types of ecosystems, from wetlands and forests to lakes, rivers, and coastal areas. Ecosystems are complex networks of species, and impacts to one part of an ecosystem can affect other species within the same area. As a result, climate change impacts can harm many species across the state. Because these communities and economies depend on healthy, functioning ecosystems, climate-related changes also have the potential to affect quality of life for all New Yorkers. Groups that are especially vulnerable to these changes include rural communities with natural resource–dependent economies, Indigenous communities, low-income communities, and coastal communities sensitive to sea level rise.

Climate hazards affecting the state’s ecosystems include rising sea levels, changing temperatures, and changes in the amount and intensity of precipitation. While gradual changes in climate conditions (such as slowly rising water temperatures) can have profound effects over time, extreme climate events have a more severe immediate impact and lead to greater costs. In general, the impacts of climate change are usually the result of climate hazards acting in combination with land-use stressors like agriculture, development, and pollution. For this reason, there is a clear benefit to prioritizing adaptation strategies that can address both types of stressors at the same time.

Read the full Ecosystems chapter to learn more about impacts and adaptation strategies.

Learn more about equity, justice, and climate change.

Explore assessment resources.