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Climate Impact Spotlight: New York City
Get to Know New York City
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, New York City consists of the five boroughs of New York City: Brooklyn, the Bronx, Queens, Manhattan, and Staten Island. Four of the five boroughs are on islands: Brooklyn and Queens are on Long Island, Manhattan and Staten Island are themselves islands. New York City covers an area of 469 square miles, of which 304 square miles are land and 165 square miles are water. The city includes 520 miles of coastline. Because the boroughs are separated by a series of rivers and waterways, the city’s urban infrastructure consists of ferries, bridges, and tunnels, including subway tunnels.1 Approximately 1 million structures dot the cityscape—from brownstones in Brooklyn to skyscrapers in Manhattan, and myriad other buildings with every use imaginable.
With a population of 8.3 million, New York City is the most populous city in the nation. It has a density of 29,000 people per square mile. While it is one of the wealthiest urban areas in the world, 17% of its residents are at or below the federal poverty level, and about 30% of its residents are classified as low-income (less than 200% of the poverty level), compared with 20% nationwide. About 36% of the population was born outside the United States. Nearly 170 languages are spoken in the city, and about 48% of residents speak a language other than English at home.1,2
New York City’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in New York City are projected to increase between 4°F and 6°F by the 2050s and between 5.6°F and 9.8°F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average. The number of cold days in the region is expected to decrease. For example, New York City has historically experienced an average of 70 days below freezing (i.e., 32°F.) By the middle of this century (the 2050s), New York City is projected to have only 31 to 48 days below freezing, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only nine to 39 days below freezing.
Climate projections for New York City show some of the state’s largest increases in extreme heat. The number of extremely hot days is projected to increase. New York City has historically experienced an average of four days per year over 95°F; this number is projected to increase to 14 to 32 days per year by mid-century and to 17 to 54 days per year by the end of the century. In addition to extreme temperatures, the heat index is also a concern. Humidity increases the danger of heat-related illness and death; heat index is a measure that combines temperature and humidity, has historically peaked at around 101°F in the region. Maximum heat index values in the region are expected to increase throughout the century.
Warmer temperatures mean less snow and ice. Winter precipitation in New York City is projected to increase between 5% and 18% by the 2050s and between 11% and 30% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. However, more of this precipitation will fall as rain than snow due to warmer temperatures.
Total precipitation is projected to increase between 4% and 11% by the 2050s and between 7% and 17% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. This precipitation could increasingly come from heavy storms, which can lead to flooding. Extreme precipitation may also contribute to high streamflow.
Sea level is projected to rise along the New York State coastline. Sea level at The Battery in lower Manhattan is projected to increase 14 to 19 inches by the 2050s and 30 to 50 inches by 2100, compared to a 1995–2014 baseline. The severity of this future sea level rise is dependent on future warming as well as the possibility of rapid ice melt in Antarctica. Sea level rise is expected to continue to increase the height and frequency of the state’s coastal floods in future decades. While New York City currently experiences approximately ten high tide floods per year as measured at The Battery, that number could rise between 60 and 85 days by the 2040s.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable New York City residents
Throughout New York State, the changing climate means rising temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events. In New York City, this is worsened by the “heat island effect.” Climate projections for New York City show some of the state’s largest increases in extreme heat, which can have direct impacts on people’s health. Humidity increases the danger of heat-related illness and death. Heat index, which is a measure that combines temperature and humidity, has historically peaked at around 100°F in the region. Maximum heat index values in the region are expected to increase throughout the century and reach “dangerous” or even “extremely dangerous” levels, as defined by the National Weather Service.
Because of New York City’s dense concentration of buildings and large areas of asphalt that trap and re-radiate heat, combined with a lack of green spaces, the city’s urban areas can be 3° to 9°F hotter than surrounding rural areas. New York City is already the warmest part of the state, and it is projected to continue to get hotter.
With warming temperatures comes an increased need for air conditioning. A 2021 study, however, found that almost 300,000 housing units across the city, or about 750,000 residents, did not have air conditioning. From 2010 to 2020, 96 people died in New York City from heat stress.
New York City residents are less likely to have air conditioning if they live in older homes, have low incomes, or live in poverty. A 2011 study found that more than one-third of New York City seniors and adults in poor health surveyed did not own or use air conditioning during extreme heat events. Low-income households are also less able to pay for the electricity needed to run air conditioning. Equity issues around air conditioning may grow as climate change advances.
Flooding impacts on people and infrastructure
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New York City, with its aging stormwater and sewer infrastructure and high percentage of impervious surfaces, is prone to flooding during heavy rainfall. Climate change could increase the frequency and intensity of flash flooding in the city, with potentially tragic consequences. For example, in September 2021, heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ida fell in New York City at the rate of 3.75 inches per hour. About 33,500 buildings were damaged. Much of the damage was concentrated in lower-income and immigrant communities of Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx, which have a high percentage of at-risk populations. Most damage in small residential buildings was from flooding in sub- or at-grade spaces such as basements. In central Queens, more than a dozen people died because of flooding of basement apartments. Two years later, in 2023, the city recorded its second wettest September ever, with record-breaking rainfall on September 29 prompting several rescues of people from basement apartments and stranded cars.3,4
Rising sea levels will also lead to more flood impacts to buildings along New York City’s coastline. By mid-century, rising seas are likely to cause regular “sunny day” flooding in low-lying neighborhoods like those around Jamaica Bay, Queens. Stronger storms will also contribute to farther reaching storm surge inundation. The city is working to manage these challenges by installing new storm sewers and by building green infrastructure. The city is also considering residential buyout programs in neighborhoods likely to be hit with the most frequent flooding.5
Climate change and food insecurity in New York City
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A city as large as New York City depends on vast amounts of food brought in from elsewhere, which can make it susceptible to weather and climate events that disrupt transportation by road, rail, ship, or air. Recent extreme weather events have created disruptions in the food supply chain in New York State and New York City. The Hunts Point Food Distribution Center in the South Bronx is one of the largest food distribution areas for New York City, distributing 4.5 billion pounds of food each year. Hunts Point is located on a peninsula, so it is susceptible to flooding and major disruptions. Superstorm Sandy in 2012 affected power, transportation, fuel, and telecommunication networks, all of which are needed for the food supply chain to operate. Residents of the Hunts Point neighborhood—a majority non-white neighborhood, with high levels of food insecurity and a poverty rate of nearly 40%—were unable to access markets elsewhere due to flooded roads and subway stations.
While land for agriculture is extremely limited in urban areas like New York City, more and more urban agricultural activity is underway in community gardens, rooftop farms, and indoor vertical farms. Diversifying local agricultural activity and undertaking strategic upgrades at important food distribution facilities, like the one in Hunts Point, could help reduce the city’s vulnerability to climate-related transportation and food distribution issues.
Extreme weather disruptions to mass transit
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Millions of people in and around New York City use subways, trains, and buses to get to work, school, and other places they need to go. Climate change can affect all these forms of mass transit. For example, coastal storm surge and heavy downpours can flood subway stations and tunnels. Storms can also cause power outages that damage electric substations and equipment, which in turn can shut down subway and rail service. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy flooded several subway stations and tunnels and caused a power outage in lower Manhattan, forcing the New York City Transit Authority to suspend all subway service between Manhattan and Brooklyn for five days. During Hurricane Ida in 2021, flooding destroyed 28 buses parked at the Castleton Depot on Staten Island, causing an estimated $8 million in damage and affecting service. Disruptions like this have disproportionate impacts on New York City residents who depend on mass transit and don’t have an affordable alternative, such as many low-income workers, people with disabilities, and older adults.
To prepare for increasing transit impacts from sea level rise and coastal storm surge, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority is building climate resilience goals into its infrastructure replacement plans, specifically to help bridges and tunnels withstand harsher climate events.
Impacts of sea level rise
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Energy supply facilities located in New York City, such as fuel storage terminals in and around New York Harbor, are vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. Storm surge or nuisance flooding and longer-term inundation can damage equipment and limit facility access. Saltwater inundation quickly corrodes and degrades electrical equipment. Sea level rise also can undermine system reliability: more frequent flooding of critical facilities such as cooling water intake structures, fuel transfer facilities, and electrical substations can compromise routine operations.
Many of New York City’s cultural and recreational resources are located around its waterways. For example, Ellis Island, the historic gateway for immigrants entering the United States, is threatened to be submerged by rising water levels in New York Harbor by the end of the century.6 Brooklyn’s Coney Island draws millions of visitors each year to its boardwalk, beaches, and amusement park.7 Public beaches along the Rockaway peninsula in Queens, like those at Jacob Riis Park, can see as many as 200,000 visitors on a summer weekend.8 As temperatures rise, these waterfront destinations may draw more beachgoers and swimmers looking to escape the urban heat. However, these beaches are vulnerable to erosion from sea level rise and coastal storms. Beaches that are damaged and narrowed by erosion may be able to accommodate fewer beachgoers as sea levels continue to rise. However, engineering solutions can help. For example, after Superstorm Sandy displaced 600,000 cubic yards of sand at Coney Island, the Army Corps of Engineers helped restore the beach by pumping sand onto the shore. Additional engineering projects have since taken place to stabilize the fragile shoreline and reduce erosion.9
Opportunities for New York City’s economy
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Although climate change poses significant risks to New York City’s economy, the work of adapting to the changing climate can produce benefits. For example, climate change presents opportunities to create new businesses and jobs focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the changing climate. For example, job opportunities are emerging in resilient planning and design; in making buildings more energy efficient; and in constructing new facilities and neighborhood scale-adaptation measures, such as flood barriers. There are also opportunities for the finance, insurance, and investment sector to manage risks in their portfolios and identify new business opportunities by incorporating climate modeling into financial and investment decision-making.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in New York City and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Growing on Rooftops: How One Urban Farm is Adapting to Climate Change. As climate change affects urban farms, adaptation practices provide solutions for crops, farm operations, and workers, as seen in the example of Brooklyn Grange.
- Attainable Solutions for Single-Family Resilience: The Hurricane-Strong Home in Breezy Point, Queens. A nonprofit partnered with private companies to rebuild the home of a Breezy Point resident to highly resilient and sustainable standards following Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
- Post-Sandy Retrofit of a Tenement on the Lower East Side: A Multifamily Perspective. The 334 East 8th Street retrofit not only repaired damage from Superstorm Sandy, but also increased the building’s overall resilience to other storms.
- Resilient Schools Post-Sandy: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in New York City. After Superstorm Sandy, the New York City Department of Education partnered with governmental and non-governmental organizations to develop the New York City Resilient Schools Consortium to inform design and construction of resilient schools in New York City.
- Innovative Housing Microgrid for Community Resilience at Marcus Garvey Village. The first-of-its-kind low- and middle-income housing microgrid project at Marcus Garvey Village in Brooklyn reduces local electricity demand on the power grid and provides the community with power resources after a power loss event, facilitating both community and grid resilience.
- Hurricane Ida: Flooded Basements Reveal Hidden Inequities. One Black woman’s experience during Hurricane Ida illustrates how climate change brings new risks and amplifies longstanding issues for those who lack safe, affordable housing.
- Housing Policy, Climate Change, and Health. Historic and ongoing exclusionary housing policies in New York City neighborhoods intensify climate hazards in deadly ways.
- Hurricane Ida and Extreme Rainfall in New York City: Uneven Vulnerabilities. Hurricane Ida highlighted unequal exposure to flood impacts, gaps in data, and unequal access to disaster recovery resources for low-lying neighborhoods and areas with insufficient stormwater infrastructure that specifically affected low-income, immigrant, and undocumented populations.
- Preparing for “The Next Sandy”: Lessons Learned from Superstorm Sandy’s Impact on New York Public Housing and the Red Hook Community. The Brooklyn neighborhood of Red Hook was among the hardest hit by Superstorm Sandy with multiple social and environmental risks—due to factors like income status, race or ethnicity, age, and health status—compounding the storm’s profound impact. A coalition of partners helped to respond to the cascade of effects and continue to prepare for future storm events.
- Con Edison’s Resilience Journey: Adaptation Planning for a Changing Climate. Con Edison is adapting to extreme weather events with proactive planning—an approach that may offer a model for other utilities.
References
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1. New York Metropolitan Transportation Council. (2009). Chapter 3. Overview of New York City (Coordinated Public Transit-Human Services Transportation Plan). https://www.nymtc.org/portals/0/pdf/CPT-HSP/NYMTC%20coord%20plan%20NYC%20CH03.pdf
2. U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). QuickFacts: New York City, New York. Retrieved July 22, 2022, from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/newyorkcitynewyork
3. Flooding in New York. (2023, September 29). New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/29/nyregion/nyc-rain-flash-flooding
4. Matthew Villafane. (2023, October 18). Severe flooding in and around NYC: Why does it keep happening? CBS New York. https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/severe-flooding-in-and-around-nyc-why-does-it-keep-happening/
5. Ysabelle Kempe. (2024, January 22). More heavy rainfall, flooding prompt NYC to create innovation working groups. Smart Cities Dive. https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/nyc-heavy-rain-flooding-climate-change-innovation-buyouts-stormwater/705162/
6. PBS. (2022, April 22). Saving Ellis Island’s History From Rising Oceans. Peril & Promise. Retrieved January 24, 2024, from https://www.pbs.org/wnet/peril-and-promise/2022/04/saving-ellis-islands-history-from-rising-oceans/
7. NYC Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency. (2013). Southern Brooklyn (A Stronger, More Resilient New York). https://www.nyc.gov/assets/sirr/downloads/pdf/Ch17_SouthernBrooklyn_FINAL_singles.pdf
8. Bob Janiskee. (2012, February 17). By the Numbers: Gateway National Recreation Area. National Parks Traveler. https://www.nationalparkstraveler.org/2012/02/numbers-gateway-national-recreation-area9445
9. JoAnne Castagna. (2023, June 2). Preserving an iconic beach for future generations. US Army Corps of Engineers. Retrieved January 24, 2024, from https://www.nan.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Stories/Story-Article-View/Article/3415170/preserving-an-iconic-beach-for-future-generations/