Extreme Events

Key Finding: Climate change is creating conditions that will increase the frequency and severity of many types of extreme events. Several types of storms are expected to become more intense, with heavier rainfall, stronger winds, and higher storm surge along the coast driven by sea level rise. Short-term summer droughts could increase due to changing precipitation patterns and increased temperatures. Wildfires are unlikely to become much more common within New York State due to climate change, but air quality impacts from large fires elsewhere in North America could increase in the future.

Climate Projections and Our Actions

Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.

Learn more about the projections used in this assessment.

Summary of how storms, storm surges, droughts, and wildfires are projected to change in New York State over the century. Hurricanes and tropical storms are projected to increase in intensity; storm surges are projected to become more destructive. The state is not at an increased risk of multi-year droughts, but short-term drought risk could increase. While the risk of wildfires is not projected to increase significantly, a bigger concern will be poor air quality caused by other wildfires in the U.S. and Canada. — Projected changes to extreme events in New York State. Source: Projections developed for this assessment.

Severe Storms

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Major storms that occur in New York State include hurricanes and tropical storms in the warmer months, nor’easters in the cooler months, snow and ice storms, and thunderstorms. Storms are changing and expected to continue to change in New York:

Historical observations: Between 1851 and 2022, 15 storms hit New York State at hurricane strength, plus many more at tropical storm strength. The state also experiences frequent nor’easters, lake-effect blizzards, and other storms. Hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean have generally become more intense since the mid-1990s. Coastal storms are also becoming more destructive because sea level rise worsens flooding from storm surge.
Projections for the future: Projected changes depend on the type of storm. Heavy rainstorms are projected to happen more often and become more intense as the climate continues to warm. High winds and flooding from hurricanes and tropical storms are expected to increase. While the number of hurricanes and tropical storms might not increase, storms that do form are projected to be stronger and shift farther north. Nor’easters are difficult to project, but models suggest they could become more intense.

Extreme storms can have devastating effects on ecosystems, communities, and the economy. Storms can directly harm people by causing injuries and deaths. They also pose other problems, like power outages that shut down transportation, health care, and other key infrastructure. They can damage homes and properties, shut down business operations, and increase insurance costs.

Record-Breaking Storms
in New York State

New York has suffered several memorably destructive storms in recent years. These include Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee in 2011, Superstorm Sandy in 2012, Hurricane Ida in 2021, and the historic snowstorms that hit Western New York in November and December 2022.

These recent storms have broken records. The 2022 blizzard set snowfall records in the Buffalo area, while Tropical Storm Lee caused record flooding in the Binghamton area. Superstorm Sandy caused unprecedented coastal flooding and destruction in New York City and on Long Island. Its storm surge traveled up the Hudson River all the way to Albany.

These examples alone are not proof that severe storms have become significantly more frequent or more intense overall in New York State. However, the observed increases in air temperature, ocean temperature, and Great Lakes water temperature over the past century are all changes that allow stronger storms to develop.

Destruction to Rockaway Park boardwalk from Superstorm Sandy. — Damage to the Rockaway Park boardwalk from Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Coastal storms are generally becoming more destructive as higher sea levels combined with storm surge worsen flooding.

Drought

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Droughts are abnormally dry periods caused by a lack of rain or snow. Droughts can result in water shortages that affect people and ecosystems. While New York has not had droughts as intense or long-lasting as the southwestern United States, it has and will continue to experience periods of drought:

Historical observations: New York has experienced wet and dry periods over time. The state’s most severe drought recorded to date occurred in the 1960s and lasted for multiple years. Overall, from 1895 to 2022, the state has become slightly wetter but has continued to experience short-term droughts, especially in the summer.
Projections for the future: Long, multiyear droughts are not expected to increase in New York State. However, short-term seasonal droughts lasting weeks or months could increase, especially in the summer. This is because of precipitation falling in more intense bursts with longer dry spells in between, as well as higher temperatures in the summer causing more water to evaporate. Reduced snow cover can also play a role, as soils dry out sooner when snow melts earlier.

While New York is not expected to see an increase in multiyear droughts, short-term seasonal droughts can have a large impact. For instance, water systems with less storage and high demand could face water shortages during droughts that last for a few months. Droughts often increase the demand for water, especially for irrigation, and lead to reduced crop yields for farmers.

Wildfire

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While New York does not have as many large wildfires as some other parts of the United States, the state does experience fires every year, especially in spring. Nearly all of them are started by humans. Wildfire risk is not projected to significantly increase in New York State:

Historical observations: From 1919 to 2018, the number and size of fires in the state declined. “Fire weather” conditions (high temperature, low humidity, and high wind) increased during this period, but so did efforts to prevent, detect, and extinguish fires.
Projections for the future: Climate change will lead to more frequent and intense wildfires in many states, but New York State is not expected to experience a large change. Some studies project that the Northeast’s fire season will start earlier and last longer. The risk of air quality impacts will increase as fires happen more often elsewhere in the United States and Canada.

Sky hazy from wildfire air pollution, obscuring a New York City bridge and the surrounding area. — Air pollution in New York City caused by wildfires in Canada in 2023. Air quality in the state may be affected in the future if wildfires happen more often in Canada and elsewhere in the United States.

Wildfires elsewhere can send smoke into the state, as many New Yorkers experienced from the record-setting fires in Canada in June and July 2023. Wildfire smoke affects air quality and poses risks to people’s health, especially children, older adults, and people with lung conditions like asthma.