The sections below contain results from the portion of the assessment that focused on physical climate. These sections explore how variables like temperature, heat waves, rainfall, heavy storms, sea level rise, and other conditions are expected to change between now and the end of this century in New York State.

Select a topic to learn more about observed and projected changes to New York State’s climate. To read the full chapter from the technical report, download New York State’s Changing Climate.

About Our Future Climate Projections

These pages include information about what New York State’s climate is likely to be in the future. These projections for the future are based on sophisticated computer models that scientists have developed to simulate how the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and other physical features respond to the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases that accumulate in the atmosphere. To project not only how but how quickly the climate will change, modelers have to make assumptions about how the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will change in the future. That means predicting if countries around the world will continue to produce more greenhouse gas emissions—and how quickly the world adopts renewable energy and other ways to reduce emissions.

There are many different possibilities. Climate scientists commonly use a set of scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to represent these different possibilities. The New York-specific projections developed for this assessment are based on two future scenarios: “intermediate emissions” (called SSP2-4.5) and “very high emissions” (SSP5-8.5). The results from these two scenarios have been combined in many places to provide a single range of likely changes in the climate, which some users may find more useful than multiple sets of numbers. However, it is still important to recognize that the degree of future change projected here is not inevitable. If the world takes serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and control future warming, the resulting climate changes could be closer to the low end of the projected range, or perhaps even lower.

More information on these projections can be found on our About Our Future Climate Projections web page. Readers interested in more technical details about the projections can refer to the New York State’s Changing Climate chapter and the accompanying methodology report below.

Data Files

• Data tables—interactive and downloadable
• Data tables—PDFs (revised December 2023)
• Methodology report (models, scenarios, calculation approach, and key results)

Previous Assessments

• Climate Needs Assessment for New York State [PDF]. Prepared by Columbia University in 2020, this assessment analyzes current use, future needs, and gaps in climate information with the goal of incorporating diverse input into the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment.
• Responding to Climate Change in New York State: The ClimAID Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation (ClimAID). Prepared by Columbia University, the City University of New York, and Cornell University in 2011 and updated in 2014 using new climate models, ClimAID provided decision-makers with information on the state’s vulnerability to climate change and facilitated development of adaptation strategies.