Lake-effect snow is caused by cold air moving across warmer water of a lake, allowing moisture and warmth to be transferred to the atmosphere. That moisture then falls as snow over land. During the period of November 17–21, 2014, two major back-to-back lake-effect snowstorms hit areas of Western New York and North Central New York. Parts of Erie County, including Buffalo, were among the hardest-hit communities, with some receiving over 7 feet of snow.¹ In some areas, snow accumulated at rates of 3–6 inches per hour, which combined with winds of between 30–50 miles per hour to create near-blizzard conditions. The resulting lake-effect storm exceeded weather forecasts and caused roof collapses, structural failures, and power outages.² It is projected that warmer water and decreased ice cover on the Great Lakes are likely to increase lake-effect snow in the next few decades. As temperatures continue to warm, however, additional precipitation caused by warmer lake conditions is projected to fall as rain rather than snow.³

Travel during the 2014 storm was extremely difficult, if not impossible, and state officials instated travel bans and a state of emergency in several areas. Dozens of flights out of Buffalo Niagara International Airport were canceled or rerouted,⁴ and the shutdown of major roadways, including I-190, I-290, NY 400, and a 132-mile section of the New York State Thruway, stranded thousands of motorists.^1,2 Snowplows focused their efforts on main roadways for emergency vehicles, and state officials diverted additional plows to Buffalo from around the state.⁴ Despite emergency response efforts, the storms directly or indirectly caused 11 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Five of the deaths were transportation-related: two individuals died of carbon-monoxide poisoning while stranded in their vehicles, two died in medical emergencies during which emergency responders could not transport them to medical facilities with appropriate levels of care, and one individual died while trying to free a stuck vehicle.⁵

The 2014 Buffalo snowstorms were historic and record breaking, but New York State may see storms like these much more frequently in the near term. As air temperatures continue to rise, ice coverage will decrease and lake temperatures will warm, which could lead to an increase in lake-effect storms.⁶ On November 18, 2022, exactly eight years after the 2014 storms, a lake-effect snowstorm brought residents of Buffalo and surrounding communities 6 feet of snow in 24 hours—one of the top three heaviest snowfalls in the region’s recorded history.⁷ Soon afterwards, the December 24–27, 2022 lake-effect blizzard claimed an estimated 39 lives in Erie County.⁸ As demonstrated from 2014 to 2022, the lake effect has the potential to cause major damage to New York communities and affects all forms of transportation, including life-saving emergency health services and utility restoration. With these storms predicted to increase in frequency and severity, impacts of lake-effect snow may become an important consideration in community and state climate adaptation and resilience planning.