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Climate Impact Spotlight: The St. Lawrence Valley Region
Get to Know the St. Lawrence Valley Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the St. Lawrence Valley region includes the northern portions of St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties. The region is in the northernmost part of the state and shares its northern border with Canada. The St. Lawrence valley is largely rural. Almost 47% of its land is forested, and over 22% is agricultural. The region includes a portion of the Tribal lands of the Mohawk Nation of the Akwesasne. The St. Lawrence Seaway passes through the region and provides a vital commercial passageway connecting the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Ocean. In addition, the St. Lawrence valley provides a wide range of outdoor recreation opportunities, including hiking, cycling, snowmobiling, skiing, camping, and boating on the St. Lawrence River.
The St. Lawrence Valley Region’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State, and the St. Lawrence Valley region is among those expected to experience the greatest increase in annual temperature. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in the St. Lawrence Valley region are projected to increase between 4.8°F and 6.6°F by the 2050s and between 6.2°F and 10.9°F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average. The number of cold days in the region is expected to decrease. For example, Canton—the weather station in this region with the best long-term weather records for this climate assessment—has historically experienced an average of 30 days below 0°F. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Canton is projected to have only 10 to 15 days below 0°F and by the end of this century (the 2080s), Canton is projected to have only three to 11 days below 0°F.
The number of extremely hot days is projected to increase in the region. Canton has historically experienced an average of two days over 90°F; this number is projected to increase to 11 to 25 days per year by mid-century and to 20 to 58 days per year by the end of the century.
Warmer temperatures mean less snow and ice. Winter precipitation in the region is projected to increase between 7% and 21% by the 2050s and between 15% and 30% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. However, more of this precipitation will fall as rain than snow due to warmer temperatures.
Total precipitation is projected to increase between 2% to 11% by the 2050s and between 7% and 14% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. This precipitation could increasingly come from heavy storms, which can lead to flooding. Extreme precipitation might also contribute to high streamflow.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Impacts to marine transportation
New York State has long prospered from its access to waterways, including the St. Lawrence Seaway. The seaway is part of the Great Lakes Marine Transportation System, which provides shipping access to the largest concentration of surface fresh water in the world. The system serves 15 major international ports and 50 regional ports, including the port of Ogdensburg in the St. Lawrence region.
Climate hazards affecting inland waterways such as the St. Lawrence Seaway include warmer temperatures, increased precipitation, and river flooding. River flooding is typically a result of heavy rain. Flooding can affect ports and other facilities and can cause economic impacts if it disrupts the movement of goods. In the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway, lower water levels could pose a threat to the economics of shipping by reducing the weight that cargo vessels can carry. Although water levels in the St. Lawrence are somewhat regulated by dams in the Great Lakes and along the river, climate change will add to the challenges of water level variability. Warmer temperatures may lead to changes in ice cover and formation along the river, which could pose challenges to ships that will need to navigate fragmented ice.1
Impacts on the St. Lawrence Valley’s wetlands
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The St. Lawrence Valley region has the highest percentage of wetlands of any of the 12 assessment regions (21.2% of land cover). Wetlands provide many important ecosystem benefits. They filter water and improve its quality, recharge groundwater, store floodwaters, and provide critical wildlife habitat.
More frequent and extreme storms, along with shifting patterns of temperature, precipitation, and drought, can affect wetland ecosystems. For example, during the course of one heavy storm, a small streamside wetland can be eroded or buried completely by sediment. If nutrients, sediment, or toxins are deposited into a wetland from an unusually intense storm, the wetland and its wildlife can be harmed.
Migratory waterfowl and other waterbirds are particularly sensitive to changes in the availability and quality of wetlands. These birds rely on the physical protection of wetlands as well as the food they provide. Migratory birds provide important recreational opportunities for hunting and bird watching. Changes in the availability and quality of wetlands could have cascading impacts on birds, recreation, and communities in this region and across New York State. Several bird species listed by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation as endangered, threatened, or of special concern breed in wetlands near the St. Lawrence. These include the pied-billed grebe and the sedge wren, both listed as threatened in New York State, and the American bittern, listed as a species of special concern.2,3
Climate change in Akwesasne
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The Indigenous Akwesasne Mohawk community includes territory in Ontario, Quebec, and the St. Lawrence Valley region of New York State. The effects of climate change are bringing disruptions for Akwesasne. In the past, the Akwesasronon (Akwesasne community members) used ice bridges for over-water winter travel to Kanatakon (Saint Regis), Kawehnoke (Cornwall Island), and other parts of the territory. Today, due to shorter and warmer winters, only one ice bridge remains—and for only a short time. The Akwesasronon monitor it carefully for fragility. Several people have died trying to cross the bridge when the ice was not solid enough. In addition, as a community that lives at the water’s edge, the Akwesasronon are increasingly concerned about flooding, particularly after a high-water event along the Saint Regis River in February of 2018.
While the effects of climate change continue to increase, proactive planning and adaptation can help buffer the Akwesasne community against climate-related threats to food, medicines, and their ability to form cultural relationships. By understanding the implications of climate change, the Akwesasronon can work to reduce impacts and benefit current and future generations.
Changes to seasonal recreation and tourism
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Seasonal activities like winter sports, cycling, and leaf-peeping are important to local economies that depend on outdoor recreation and tourism. The St. Lawrence Valley region offers a range of snow-related activities, such as snowshoeing, snowmobiling, ice skating, and cross-country skiing, all of which are at risk from warming temperatures and decreasing snowfall.
In addition, climate change could affect the timing and duration of autumn foliage, leading to impacts to fall tourism in the region. Some studies suggest that warmer temperatures may delay the onset of fall color change, leading to a shortened foliage season.
Seasonal changes could also create new opportunities for those who can adapt. Cycling is already a popular activity in the St. Lawrence valley. Warmer spring and fall temperatures could mean a longer season for cycling and other warm-weather activities such as boating.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the St. Lawrence Valley region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Climate Change Gives Devastating Hemlock Pest Six Legs Up in New York State. When the tree-killing hemlock woolly adelgid spread northward, warmer winters in New York State led to unexpected outbreaks.
References
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1. Claude Comtois. (2022, September 7). Navigating climate change: How shipping is adapting in the St. Lawrence. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/navigating-climate-change-how-shipping-is-adapting-in-the-st-lawrence-189523
2. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. (n.d.). Past Breeding Bird Atlas Data And Maps. Retrieved January 24, 2024, from https://dec.ny.gov/nature/animals-fish-plants/birds/breeding-bird-atlas/past-data-maps
3. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. (n.d.). List of endangered, threatened and special concern fish & wildlife species of New York State. Retrieved June 23, 2023, from https://www.dec.ny.gov/animals/7494.html