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Climate Impact Spotlight: The Southern Tier Region
Get to Know the Southern Tier Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Southern Tier region includes Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Chenango, Steuben, and Tioga counties. Binghamton and Elmira are the largest cities in the region. The Seneca Nation’s Allegany Indian Territory and the Oil Springs Indian Territory are within the region, and part of the Cattaraugus Indian Territory is also here. The Southern Tier lies largely within the Appalachian plateau, and much of the region is characterized by rolling hills. The easternmost part of the region includes the western foothills of the Catskills. The Southern Tier is largely rural. About 64% of its land is forested, and nearly 24% is agricultural. Cattaraugus, Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, and Broome Counties share their southern borders with Pennsylvania. Major rivers in the area include the Susquehanna, Chemung, Allegheny, and west branch of the Delaware.
The Southern Tier Region’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in the region are projected to increase between 4.6°F and 6.4°F by the 2050s and between 5.9°F and 10.4°F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average. The number of extremely hot days is projected to increase as well. Binghamton, one of three weather stations in this region with the long-term weather records used in this assessment, has historically experienced an average of three days per year over 90°F; this number is projected to increase to 11 to 23 days per year by mid-century and to 18 to 48 days per year by the end of the century.
The number of days below freezing (i.e., 32°F) in the Southern Tier is expected to decrease. Binghamton has historically experienced an average of 142 days per year below freezing. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Binghamton is projected to have only 95 to 117 days below freezing, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only 61 to 110 days below freezing. Days below 0°F will also decrease.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Forests and forestry
The Southern Tier is one of the most forested regions of the state, with nearly two-thirds of its land covered by forests. Forestry is an important contributor to the Southern Tier’s economy, and forests also provide a wealth of recreational opportunities, including hiking, snowmobiling, camping, and hunting.
The region’s logging and forest products industries may be affected by climate change. In addition to potential impacts to important timber species, warmer winters and wetter summers may make logging roads muddy and impassable, leading to reduced access to timber and increased costs for harvesting and trucking.
As the climate warms, invasive species are expanding their ranges northward. The Southern Tier, on the southern boundary of the state, is at the front line of these invasions. For example, the eastern hemlock is an important tree in the region’s forests. It is generally found in cool moist forests and is abundant in the Southern Tier. In addition to being a timber species, hemlocks provide shade, food, and habitat for wildlife; prevent erosion; and keep temperatures cool along streams and other waterways. The eastern hemlock is being threatened by an invasive insect, the hemlock woolly adelgid. Very cold winters can suppress woolly adelgid populations, but with warming winter temperatures, the woolly adelgid has expanded its range. Trees that were once protected by frigid winter temperatures are increasingly susceptible to the woolly adelgid. The New York State Hemlock Initiative at Cornell University is coordinating community scientists’ efforts and research to increase early detection of the woolly adelgid. The project develops biological control agents, evaluates their effectiveness, and prioritizes hemlock stands for chemical treatment while working to understand the impacts of hemlock loss on the forest ecosystem.
Extreme precipitation and flooding in the Susquehanna River Basin
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The Susquehanna River is particularly prone to flooding. Along its course in both New York State and Pennsylvania, the river has historically flooded approximately once every 15 years.1 The projected increase in heavy rainstorms is likely to heighten flood risks along the Susquehanna and its tributary rivers and streams, threatening homes, businesses, and infrastructure located along these waterways and within their floodplains.
Buildings such as schools, hospitals, medical facilities, and religious institutions play an important role in emergency response. Making these critical buildings more resilient benefits not only the buildings’ immediate occupants and users, but also the community at large. For example, Binghamton’s Our Lady of Lourdes Memorial Hospital is located on the banks of the Susquehanna River within the 100-year floodplain. During an extreme rainstorm in 2006, floodwaters overtopped the berm separating the hospital from the river and covered the ground floor of the hospital with floodwater. Hospital administrators and engineers worked with state and federal agencies to develop a hazard mitigation plan that included floodgates as well as a long concrete wall at the 500-year floodplain elevation. Only a few months after project completion, Tropical Storm Lee brought heavy rain to the Southern Tier and overwhelmed the Susquehanna River, which Hurricane Irene had already saturated just ten days before. The floodwaters exceeded the previous record seen during the 2006 flood. The hospital was able to remain fully operational for the duration of the flood—even as the storm damaged more than 2,000 other buildings in Binghamton.
Wastewater treatment plants located on these rivers and streams are also vulnerable to flooding. For example, in 2011, the Binghamton–Johnson City wastewater treatment plant severely flooded during Tropical Storm Lee, damaging critical equipment. The plant was not fully rehabilitated until nearly 2019. Also, following loss of power after Tropical Storm Lee, the Village of Endicott’s pumping systems failed, and its water mains were damaged by depressurization. Using federal recovery money, Endicott constructed a new water main that also provides an interconnection to the water system in the neighboring Town of Vestal. This upgrade contributes to resilience in both communities and improves their ability to respond to and recover from future climate events such as droughts and flooding.
Impacts on agriculture
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Agriculture is a mainstay of the Southern Tier’s economy. Dairy farms and forage crops are two of the most important commodities produced in the region. High temperature and humidity can lead to heat stress in dairy cows. This reduces the amount of milk they produce, and in severe cases, it can harm their health. Warming summer temperatures could make heat stress an increasing concern in the region. Dairy farmers can reduce heat stress to cows by upgrading facilities with better ventilation and cooling mechanisms, including fans and sprinklers. More broadly, online tools, such as Cornell University’s Climate Smart Farming toolkit, can provide information to help farmers understand and manage their climate-related risks.
Protecting wildlife habitat in the Southern Tier
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The woodlands, wetlands, and other habitats in the Southern Tier provide important habitat for a wide range of mammals, birds, insects, and other creatures. Climate change is affecting these habitats. Temperatures could now be too warm, snowfall too infrequent, or storms too intense for a species’ continued survival in places where it had long thrived.
New York State’s landscape has become fragmented, leading to gaps in suitable habitat. Human-made features such as dams, highways, and fences present barriers to animals’ movement. Connected habitat is therefore vital in enabling animals to reach new suitable habitat over time as climate conditions change.
As climate change increasingly affects ecosystems, conservation efforts in the state are focusing on maintaining and reconnecting wildlife habitat. To maintain and restore habitat connectivity for animal movement, local and regional organizations have partnered with the Western New York Land Conservancy to create the Western New York Wildway. The Wildway is a series of protected lands that connect the forests of northern Pennsylvania and the Southern Tier to the Great Lakes, through to the Finger Lakes and the Adirondacks. The Land Conservancy works with landowners to establish conservation easements and acquire lands for the Wildway.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Southern Tier region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting to climate change.
- Protecting the Most Vulnerable: Hospital Floodwall Retrofit in the Southern Tier. Our Lady of Lourdes Memorial Hospital in Binghamton built a floodwall to prevent repeated flooding of the facility.
- Connecting the Dots: Local and Regional Efforts to Facilitate Habitat Continuity in a Changing Climate. As climate change increasingly affects ecosystems, conservation efforts in New York State focus on maintaining and reconnecting wildlife habitat.
- Climate Change Gives Devastating Hemlock Pest Six Legs Up in New York State. When the tree-killing hemlock woolly adelgid spread northward, warmer winters in New York State led to unexpected outbreaks.
References
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1. Susquehanna River Basin Commission. (2024). Preparing for floods in the Susquehanna River Basin. Flooding. https://www.srbc.gov/our-work/programs/planning-operations/flooding/#:~:text=History%20of%20Flooding&text=The%20mainstem%20of%20the%20Susquehanna,
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