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Climate Impact Spotlight: The North Hudson Region
Get to Know the North Hudson Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the North Hudson region includes Albany, Columbia, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, and Washington counties. The Capital District, an urban area with a population of more than 900,000 that includes Albany, Schenectady, Troy, and various suburbs, is located in the region. Much of the region is rural, with numerous smaller cities and towns interspersed across the landscape. The Hudson River runs north to south through the region, and the Mohawk River enters from the west and joins the Hudson in Cohoes. The Port of Albany-Rensselaer on the Hudson River is an important commercial port. The foothills of the Adirondacks rise in northern Washington and Saratoga Counties, and the Taconic Mountains lie in eastern Washington, Rensselaer, and Columbia Counties.
The North Hudson Region’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in the North Hudson region are projected to increase between 4.5°F and 6.4°F by the 2050s and between 5.9°F and 10.5°F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average.
The number of very cold days in the region is expected to decrease, based on projections for Albany and Saratoga Springs (the weather stations in the North Hudson region with the best long-term weather data for this assessment). Albany has historically experienced an average of nine days per year below 0°F. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Albany is projected to have only 0.5 to two days per year below 0°F, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have zero to 0.9 days below 0°F. Saratoga Springs has historically experienced an average of 14 days below 0°F. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), it is projected to have only two to five days below 0°F, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only 0.4 to two days below 0°F.
The North Hudson region is among the regions projected to experience the greatest increase in the number of heat waves per year. Albany has historically experienced an average of 0.9 days over 95°F; this number is projected to increase to seven to 16 days per year by mid-century and to 13 to 44 days per year by the end of the century. Saratoga Springs has historically experienced an average of one day per year over 95°F; this number is projected to increase to eight to 19 days per year by mid-century and to 15 to 43 days per year by the end of the century.
Warmer temperatures mean less snow and ice. Winter precipitation in the region is projected to increase between 7% and 21% by the 2050s and between 15% and 30% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. However, more of this precipitation will fall as rain than snow due to warmer temperatures.
Total precipitation is projected to increase between 3% and 11% by the 2050s and between 6% and 14% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. This precipitation could increasingly come from heavy storms, which can lead to flooding. Extreme precipitation can also contribute to high streamflow.
The Hudson River in this area is tidal below Troy, so it is vulnerable to flooding from a combination of high streamflow and tidal flooding made worse by sea level rise. With sea level rise, water levels in these tidal sections of the Hudson are projected to increase between 12 and 17 inches by the 2050s relative to a 1995–2014 baseline.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Impacts to dairy farms and orchards
The North Hudson region is home to numerous apple orchards, particularly in Columbia and Washington Counties. As the climate warms, “false spring” warmups can cause apple blossoms to open too early (a phenomenon known as “early budbreak”). A late spring frost can then damage flowers and cause crop failure. When a late spring frost is predicted, some growers protect trees by using overhead sprinklers to create an ice layer around the buds to keep freezing temperatures from destroying them.
Dairy farms in the North Hudson region contribute to the state’s largest agricultural sector. High temperature and humidity can lead to heat stress in dairy cows. This reduces the amount of milk they produce, and in severe cases, it can harm their health. Warming summer temperatures could make heat stress to cows an increasing concern in the region. Dairy farmers can reduce heat stress by upgrading facilities with better ventilation and cooling mechanisms, including fans and sprinklers. More broadly, online tools, such as Cornell University’s Climate Smart Farming toolkit, can provide information to help farmers understand and manage their climate-related risks.
Warming temperatures and thoroughbred racing
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The Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs is one of the oldest thoroughbred race tracks in the country and is home to the Travers Stakes. The racing season is in high summer, currently from mid-July through Labor Day. Saratoga Springs is one of the locations in the state expected to have the largest increase in extremely hot days and in the number of heatwaves. This will mean a higher number of hotter racing days, which could add strain on the horses that are racing. Horses are large animals, and this makes it difficult for them to rapidly shed body heat and increases their risk of overheating in high temperatures.1 To reduce heat risks to horses, tracks could postpone races on very hot days. Also, trainers can shower horses continuously with water after a race or direct fans on them to cool them down.
Impacts of sea level rise
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Though it may seem that the North Hudson region is far away from the ocean and its tides, the Hudson River is in fact tidal all the way to the Federal Dam in Troy. Sea level rise could affect the Hudson River shoreline in the region. Marshlands along the river could be flooded and eroded by rising tidal waters, damaging habitat for species that depend on wetlands for food and shelter. Sea level rise could potentially affect operations at the Port of Albany, which has facilities on both sides of the Hudson, in Albany and in Rensselaer. Rising waters could also create drainage issues, potentially causing stormwater runoff to back up onto streets and highways. Albany’s two wastewater treatment facilities near the Hudson River could experience more frequent flooding due to sea level rise. The City of Albany has factored sea level rise into some of its plans for stormwater infrastructure—for example, by incorporating tide gates into its combined sewer overflow (CSO) outfall on the Hudson to prevent river water from flowing back into the sewer system during high tides.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the North Hudson Region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Climate Change Threatens Apple Production, but It Is Not Too Late to Adapt. Fruit producers are experiencing disruptions and losses due to climate change, requiring adaptation solutions. Financial incentives may provide opportunities to encourage adaptation.
- Heat Stress Relief in New York State Dairy Farming. Strategies for reducing heat stress in New York State dairy cattle during extreme heat events.
- Climate Change Gives Devastating Hemlock Pest Six Legs Up in New York State. When the tree-killing hemlock woolly adelgid spread northward, warmer winters in New York State led to unexpected outbreaks.
References
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1. Halsey, L. G., & Bryce, C. M. (2021). Are humans evolved specialists for running in the heat? Man vs. horse races provide empirical insights. Experimental Physiology, 106(1), 258–268. https://doi.org/10.1113/EP088502