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Climate Impact Spotlight: The Mohawk River Valley Region
Get to Know the Mohawk River Valley Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Mohawk River Valley region includes Fulton, Montgomery, Oneida, Otsego, Schoharie, and southern Herkimer counties. The region is largely rural, with 25.9% of the land agricultural and 53.9% forested. Utica is the largest city in the region. The Mohawk River flows through the region from west to east. The waters of the river historically served as an important passageway for Indigenous people. The Erie Canal was completed in 1825, bringing trade as it largely followed the course of the Mohawk. Today, the region remains a key transportation corridor, with the New York State Canal System, the Thruway, and Amtrak all serving as east-west transportation systems through the region. Part of Oneida County falls within the Tug Hill region, one of the most rural—and snowiest—areas of the state.
The Mohawk River Valley Region’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in the region are projected to increase between 4.5°F and 6.4°F by the 2050s and between 5.9°F and 10.5°F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average. The number of extremely hot days is projected to increase as well. Cooperstown (the location with the best long-term weather data in this region) has historically experienced an average of three days per year above 90°F; this number is expected to increase to 13 to 30 days per year by mid-century and 24 to 66 days per year by the end of the century.
The number of days below freezing (i.e., 32°F) in the Mohawk River Valley region is expected to decrease. For example, Cooperstown has historically experienced an average of 160 days below freezing. These very cold days are expected to become less common. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Cooperstown is projected to have only 112 to 135 days below freezing, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only 82 to 119 days below freezing. Days below 0°F will also decrease. Warmer winter temperatures also mean less precipitation will fall as snow.
Like elsewhere in the state, total annual precipitation in the Mohawk River Valley region is projected to increase in the next century. As weather patterns change, more of this precipitation will fall in heavy bursts, leading to higher river flows and flood risks.
Warmer air temperatures also lead to higher surface water temperatures in the region’s lakes and rivers and shorter periods of ice cover on lakes. For example, on Otsego Lake, near Cooperstown, the date that the lake freezes over completely has shifted later in the season by 11 days since 1849, and ice losses are projected to continue into future decades.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Flooding in the Mohawk River Valley
Many homes, businesses, roadways, and historic sites in the Mohawk River Valley are situated close to waterways that can flood during heavy rainfall or snowmelt events. For example, a June 2006 flood forced hundreds of residents to evacuate homes along East Canada Creek and the Mohawk River. In Montgomery County, it caused notable damage in the village of Canajoharie, including millions of dollars in damage to the Beech-Nut Nutrition Corporation’s factory,1 a leading producer of baby food and key employer in the town. The company later cited the flooding as a reason for relocating its manufacturing facility outside of Canajoharie.2,3 Later, in 2022, Hurricane Irene caused damaging floods in the region, leading to road closures and damage to historic sites.
River floods are projected to become larger and happen more often as precipitation increases, and they could cause more damage to nearby communities. For example, Sauquoit Creek in Oneida County has a significant history of flooding and causing damage to local businesses. Historically, flooding was caused by a combination of snowmelt, rainfall, and ice jams. Over time, however, increased runoff, erosion, and sediment buildup in the creek and adjacent areas have also contributed to flooding. Because rainfall in the region is projected to increase with climate change, the risk of flooding will also increase. After a storm in October 2019 resulted in the flooding of more than 150 properties, the Sauquoit Creek Basin Intermunicipal Commission (SBIC) was formed to study and address flooding and stormwater management in the watershed. The SBIC recommended a property buyout program to reclaim land to increase the breadth of the floodplain and its ability to absorb the extreme precipitation projected in climate models. Read more about solutions to Sauquoit creek in the case study Of Infrastructure and Inundation, a Tale of Adaptation Along Sauquoit Creek.
Impacts to dairy production
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Climate change could affect the many dairy farms located in the Mohawk Valley region. High temperature and humidity can lead to heat stress in dairy cows, which reduces the amount of milk they produce. Warming summer temperatures could make heat stress an increasing concern in the region. Dairy farmers can reduce heat stress to cows by upgrading facilities with better ventilation and cooling mechanisms, including fans and sprinklers.
The transportation of agricultural goods is often very time sensitive. Dairy farmers, for example, need functioning roadways to get milk produced on their farms to the dairies that process it in an efficient and timely way. Agricultural producers could suffer economic losses as roadway flooding increases in the region. In 2011, for example, Hurricane Irene washed out a road in Schoharie County that prevented a local dairy farm from transporting milk.
Changes to winter activities and seasonal recreation
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Winter sports, like cross country skiing, snowshoeing, and snowmobiling, are important to the economies and culture of many Mohawk River Valley communities. For example, winter tourism is a particularly important source of revenue for towns within the Tug Hill region of northern Oneida County. As temperatures warm and snowfall decreases over the coming century, the Mohawk River Valley region may see reduced opportunities for these activities during a shorter winter season. Some organizations are expanding the activities they offer during the rest of the year to help offset the uncertainty of winter revenues. For example, warm weather sports like cycling could increase in popularity in the region as spring and fall temperatures rise.
Climate migration and opportunities for the region
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As other parts of the United States and the world become hotter, drier, and more prone to wildfires and other disasters, climate-related population movement could result in opportunities for growth in some of New York State’s cities and regions. Given the relatively lesser severity of changes that are predicted in some areas of the state, compared to other areas of the country and world, cities in the Mohawk Valley region and elsewhere in the state may want to assess the potential for climate in-migration and plan and prepare infrastructure that accounts for potential population growth due to climate impacts.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Mohawk River Valley Region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Small Museums Are Vulnerable but May Not Have the Resources to Cope: The Walter Elwood Museum and Hurricane Irene. Museums, historical sites, and other cultural centers are important community spaces that often lack the resources to learn about and prepare for climate change.
- Heat Stress Relief in New York State Dairy Farming. Strategies for reducing heat stress in New York State dairy cattle during extreme heat events.
- Of Infrastructure and Inundation: A Tale of Adaptation Along Sauquoit Creek. After the 2019 Halloween storm flooded homes and properties in the region, the Sauquoit Creek Basin Intermunicipal Commission was formed to address regional local transportation infrastructure issues.
References
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1. Thomas P. Suro, Gary D. Firda, & Carolyn O. Szabo. (2009). Flood of June 26–29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware and Susquehanna River Basins, New York (Open-File Report 2009–1063). U.S. Geological Survey. https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2009/1063/pdf/ofr2009-1063.pdf
2. Janis Barth. (2009, April 12). Beech-Nut to leave Canajoharie after 118 years. The Post-Standard. https://www.syracuse.com/news/2009/04/beechnut_to_leave_canajoharie.html
3. Edward Munger Jr. (2010, March 31). Canajoharie meeting to address flooding problems. The Daily Gazette. https://www.dailygazette.com/towns/schenectady/canajoharie-meeting-to-address-flooding-problems/article_4398acc3-e528-52ae-8fdb-18ef1ec901d8.html