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Climate Impact Spotlight: The Long Island Region
Get to Know Long Island
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Long Island region includes Nassau and Suffolk counties. The region is densely populated and is home to more than 8 million people. Eastern Suffolk County is the most rural part of the region. Long Island is home to both the Poospatuck and Shinnecock Indian Territories.
Long Island is largely flat, with its highest point rising to only around 400 feet above sea level.1 The north shore along Long Island Sound is dotted with small bays and coves with rocky beaches. The south shore faces the Atlantic Ocean and is lined by barrier islands that protect the mainland from the open ocean. Fire Island is the longest—a 32-mile-long barrier island that forms the Great South Bay. The Long Island central pine barrens occupy more than 10,000 acres in Suffolk County.2 Portions of the pine barrens are protected from development to ensure the quality of the water in the aquifer that supplies much of Long Island with its drinking water. Overall, however, Long Island is the least forested region in the state other than New York City. Long Island’s beaches are important places for outdoor recreation—not only for Long Island, but for the greater New York City metropolitan area as well. For example, Jones Beach State Park receives around 6 million visitors each year.3 Agriculture, concentrated mostly in Suffolk County, includes production of vegetables, fruit, and ornamental plants.4 Eastern Suffolk County is also home to around 70 vineyards and wine-tasting rooms.5
Long Island’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. Averaged over the entire year, temperature on Long Island is projected to increase between 3.8°F and 5.8°F by the 2050s and between 5.1°F and 9.5°F by the 2080s compared to the 1981–2010 average. The number of extremely hot days in the region is expected to increase. For example, Bridgehampton—the weather station in this region with the best long-term weather records for this climate assessment—has historically experienced an average of five days per year over 90°F; this number is projected to increase to 15 to 24 days per year by mid-century and 19 to 52 days per year by the end of the century.
The number of extremely cold days is also projected to decrease. Bridgehampton has historically experienced an average of 107 days below freezing (i.e., 32°F). These cold days are expected to become less common. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Bridgehampton is projected to have only 62 to 83 days below freezing, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only 39 to 68 days below freezing.
Warmer temperatures mean less snow and ice. Winter precipitation is projected to increase between 5% and 18% by the 2050s and between 11% and 28% by the 2080s compared to the 1981–2010 average, but more of this will fall as rain than snow as temperatures rise. Annual precipitation is projected to increase on Long Island between 4% and 11% by the 2050s and between 6% and 16% by the 2080s, compared to the 1981–2010 average.
Sea level is projected to rise along New York State’s coastline. Sea level at Montauk is projected to increase by 15 to 21 inches by the 2050s and by 32 to 54 inches by 2100 compared to a 1995–2014 baseline. Sea level rise is expected to continue to increase the height and frequency of the state’s coastal floods in future decades. While areas along Long Island Sound currently experience approximately four high tide floods per year as measured at Montauk, that number could rise to 50 to 90 days by the 2040s.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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The many effects of sea level rise
Sea level is projected to rise along the Long Island coastline by about two to three feet by the end of the century. However, there is a chance of a more dramatic change if part of the Antarctic ice sheet collapses, for example. Coastal flooding from storm surge made worse by sea level rise can cause power outages; contaminate drinking water; and prevent people from accessing health care, transportation, and other needs.
Sea level rise could also affect agriculture in this low-lying region. Some farms on Long Island have already experienced these effects, with more than 800 acres of farmland flooded with salt water during Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
The lands of the Shinnecock Nation, on Long Island’s south shore, are just slightly above sea level. Projected sea level rise could make parts of the Shinnecock’s land uninhabitable. The 2013 Shinnecock Indian Nation Climate Change Adaptation Plan has guided the Shinnecock’s efforts to address the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise. The plan addresses flood resilience measures and actions to control shoreline erosion (for example, by planting native shrubs and grasses). The case study Rising Tides, Rising to the Challenge: Shinnecock Indian Nation provides more information.
The south shore of Long Island is renowned for its beautiful sandy beaches, such as those found at Jones Beach State Park, on Fire Island, and in the Hamptons and Montauk. Sea level rise, along with the impacts of coastal storms, causes beaches to erode. Beaches that are damaged and narrowed by sea level rise and storm-induced erosion may become less appealing to beachgoers, which in turn could have negative impacts on Long Island’s tourism economy. At the same time, warming temperatures could lead to longer beach seasons and positive impacts for tourism. Sea level rise is also endangering historic sites and landmarks on Long Island, such as the historic Montauk lighthouse. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is protecting it with a new stone retaining wall.6 As beaches recede, habitat is reduced for birds that nest on beaches, such as the piping plover, which is endangered in New York State.7
Warming ocean temperatures
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The temperature of the water at the ocean’s surface is a key indicator of climate change. Sea surface temperature is rising around Long Island, with the largest increases in summer and fall. Marine heat waves, which are periods of several days with water temperatures much higher than normal, have also increased in recent years. Higher water temperatures can have major impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. Aquatic species are especially sensitive to changes in temperature, and warmer oceans have less oxygen supply than colder waters. Warming water is causing some species, such as the American lobster, to shift their ranges to colder waters, while species historically found south of the state’s waters are now being found more often in Long Island Sound. Warming water temperatures along Long Island’s coast will likely lead to the decline of some existing fisheries, but could also present future opportunities for the region. For example, New York State has historically been the northern extent for the blue crab’s range. A recent survey conducted by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation has shown that blue crabs are increasing in Long Island’s waters. The blue crab may provide a new opportunity for commercial fisheries in the Long Island region, especially as the American lobster’s range moves farther north. The case study American Lobster and Blue Crab: Changing Water Temperatures, Changing Populations provides more information.
Ocean acidification and shellfish
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Oceans absorb some of the carbon dioxide that human activities add to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide reacts with sea water to produce carbonic acid, so an increase in dissolved carbon dioxide leads to an increase in acidity (lower pH). The ocean has already become more acidic as it absorbs more atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the ocean waters around Long Island, high amounts of dissolved carbon dioxide suggest increased acidity. Stormwater runoff—water from precipitation that flows over land and buildings—is also a driver of acidification. When runoff flows into waterways, it adds sediments and pollutants that affect the water’s pH level. Measurements of pH taken in 2021 indicate that the areas most affected by acidification are in western Long Island Sound and in the New York–New Jersey Harbor. Higher acidity changes water chemistry, which affects many ocean species. For example, it is harder for shellfish to create shells in more acidic water. Declines in shellfish populations affect ecosystems, people’s health, and the economy. Shellfish help filter pollutants from water, are a traditional food source for some Indigenous Peoples, and contribute to New York State’s fishing industry. Acidification can also harm the growth and development of fish such as the summer flounder, also called “fluke.” Summer flounder is an important species for both recreational and commercial fishing in the Long Island region. However, summer flounder populations have been increasing in Long Island’s waters as water temperatures have warmed.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Long Island region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Rising Tides, Rising to the Challenge: Shinnecock Indian Nation. The Shinnecock Nation faces a pressing existential threat from sea level rise. The Shinnecock are actively researching and addressing climate change while asserting the importance of Indigenous perspectives and contexts.
- Preserving Sustenance, Income, and Generational Traditions in the Face of Growing Climate Impacts: Marine and Land Farming Adaptations Among the Shinnecock Nation. The Shinnecock people are experiencing climate change impacts on shellfish and crops that are key sources of revenue, food, and cultural traditions. Their community is using multiple strategies to adapt.
- American Lobster and Blue Crab: Changing Water Temperatures, Changing Populations. The increasing blue crab population on Long Island due to warming water temperatures has economic implications as a potential growing industry that will require new management and regulations.
References
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1. Roslyn Landmark Society. (2021, August 18). Question of the Week: Where is the highest peak on Long Island- Harbor Hill in East Hills or Jaynes Hill (High Hill) in Huntington? https://www.roslynlandmarks.org/news/question-of-the-week-is-harbor-hill-in-east-hills-or-jaynes-hill-in-huntington-the-highest-peak-on-long-island
2. CPBJPPC. (2022). Central Pine Barrens Overview. Central Pine Barrens Joint Planning & Policy Commission. https://pb.state.ny.us/central-pine-barrens/overview/
3. New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation. (n.d.). Jones Beach State Park. https://parks.ny.gov/parks/jonesbeach/
4. Office of the New York State Comptroller. (2012). Agriculture in Long Island (Report 10-2013). https://web.osc.state.ny.us/reports/li_ag_rpt_10_2013.pdf
5. Suffolk County Government. (n.d.). Craft beverage industry. https://suffolkcountyny.gov/Business/Craft-Beverage-Industry#:~:text=The%20County%20boasts%20approximately%2070,6%20cideries%2C%20and%205%20distilleries
6. Deshawn Bowser. (2023, February 9). USACE New York District protects the Montauk Point Lighthouse, the First Lighthouse Built in New York State. US Army Corps of Engineers. https://www.nan.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Stories/Story-Article-View/Article/3294426/usace-new-york-district-protects-the-montauk-point-lighthouse-the-first-lightho/
7. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. (n.d.). Retrieved June 23, 2023, from https://www.dec.ny.gov/animals/7494.html