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Climate Impact Spotlight: The Great Lakes Region
Get to Know the Great Lakes Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Great Lakes region includes Chautauqua, Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Monroe, Wayne, Oswego, and Jefferson Counties, as well as northern Cayuga County. The region features shorelines of Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Niagara and St. Lawrence rivers. Buffalo, the state’s second largest city, is located along Lake Erie, and Rochester, the state’s fourth largest city, is located on the Genesee River, which empties into Lake Ontario. Away from the lakes’ shorelines, the region is characterized by farmland (approximately 34% of land) and forests (also approximately 34% of land), as well as wetlands and smaller cities and towns. Western portions of the Tug Hill plateau, a rural and largely forested area noted for its heavy snowfalls and cold winter temperatures, rise to the east of Lake Ontario in Jefferson and Oswego counties. The Tonawanda Indian Territory, the Tuscarora Nation Indian Territory, and part of the Cattaraugus Indian Territory are located in the Great Lakes region.
The Great Lakes are an important source of fresh water for major metropolitan areas and smaller cities and towns throughout western and central New York State. The ports of Buffalo, Oswego, Rochester, and Ogdensburg support domestic and international trade, and together handle more than 1.1 million tons of inbound and outbound cargo each year. In addition, the Niagara Power Project in Lewiston is the state’s largest producer of electricity. Outdoor tourism provides revenue to many local communities in the region, through seasonal activities like recreational fishing, boating, beach going, leaf-peeping, and snow-related sports. Niagara Falls, located on the river connecting Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, is one of the most notable tourist attractions not only in the state but in the nation as well.
The Great Lakes Region’s Changing Climate
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Like other northern areas in the state, the Great Lakes region is projected to experience some of the largest increases in average temperatures. By the 2080s, annual average temperatures are expected to increase between 6.1°F and 10.5°F, and winter temperatures are expected to increase between 7°F to 12°F. Rochester—one of five weather stations in the region with long term records used for this assessment—has historically experienced an average of seven days per year over 90°F; this number is projected to increase to 20 to 38 days per year by mid-century and to 31 to 66 days per year by the end of the century.
The number of days below freezing is also projected to shrink significantly. For example, Rochester has historically experienced an average of 131 days below freezing (i.e., 32°F). These cold days are expected to become less common. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Rochester is projected to have only 75 to 107 days below freezing per year, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only 39 to 85 days below freezing per year.
The Great Lakes experience an average of 40.3 inches of precipitation per year. Annual precipitation is projected to increase between 14% and 29% by the 2080s. The Great Lakes region is also known for heavy lake-effect snow driven by water from unfrozen lakes evaporating into colder air, then falling as snow over land. Snowfall totals in areas directly east of the Great Lakes often reach or exceed 150 inches per year, and they have increased over the last century. Lake-effect snowfall is likely to continue to increase into the next few decades as warmer water and decreased ice cover allow more water to evaporate. However, as temperatures continue to warm later in this century, more of this precipitation will likely fall as rain instead of snow.
Water levels in Lakes Erie and Ontario are likely to have more year-to-year variability, with higher highs and lower lows driven by periods of extreme precipitation and drought. Even as annual rainfall totals increase, models show that short-term seasonal droughts could also increase, especially in the summer, because more precipitation will fall in heavy bursts with longer dry spells in between. Shoreline flooding could become more common and intense in times when higher water levels are combined with heavy rainfall. Strong winds can cause seiches, which are a type of wave pattern that causes water to pile up at one end of a large lake. Seiches tend to be more powerful on the eastern end of Lake Erie due to the lake’s size, depth, and shape. Seiches are difficult to predict, but some research suggests that more intense storms and reduced ice cover could lead to larger seiches on Lake Erie.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Increasing lake-effect precipitation
While lake-effect snow is a common seasonal occurrence in areas east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, severe winter storms can still disrupt everyday life in the region. Warmer lake temperatures and decreased ice cover are likely to increase lake-effect snowfall over the next few decades, which may lead to increasing damage and repair costs to houses, transportation systems, and utility infrastructure.
Two severe lake-effect snowstorms in the region in 2022 are recent examples of how heavy snowfall can disrupt roadways, transit systems, and airports.1 In November 2022, a storm dropped more than six feet of snow in areas south of Buffalo. The Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority had to suspend bus services in Erie County for four days. One month later, a second blizzard made roadways impassable, stranded hundreds of people in cars, and caused dozens of flight cancellations from Buffalo Niagara International Airport. High winds and poor visibility made snow removal efforts especially difficult in this December storm. If snow events like these become more frequent or intense over the next few decades, it will create significant strain on transportation departments and emergency services.
As air temperatures increase during this century, more of this winter precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow. Even as snowfall totals decline, rain-on-snow events and fluctuations between freezing and warmer temperatures may cause additional stress and structural damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Rising temperatures alter Great Lakes ecosystems
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Aquatic ecosystems in Lake Ontario and Lake Erie and their watersheds are affected by changes in air temperature, precipitation, and extreme events. For example, heavy rainfall and snowmelt that come with rising temperatures will increase urban and agricultural runoff and negatively impact water quality. Native fish populations may be disrupted by warming water temperature and more variable lake levels. Native species may also be harmed or outcompeted by invasive species that are able to expand their range in warmer waters.
Declines in cold-water fish populations, such as lake trout, will affect recreational fishing and local spending related to this activity. In addition, Indigenous populations in the Great Lakes region may be affected, as fishing is both economically and culturally significant for Indigenous People. Increasing frequency of harmful algae growth (“harmful algal blooms”) in the Great Lakes can also create health risks to humans from fishing or swimming and can reduce incomes for businesses that depend on fishing, boating, and other water-related activities.
Changing water levels in Lakes Erie and Ontario
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Fluctuations in water levels can impact buildings and transportation systems along Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. As temperatures rise and both extreme rainstorms and seasonal droughts become more common, the lakes are likely to see greater variability between very high and very low water levels. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to increase flood intensity in lakefront communities. For example, in 2017, flooding damaged communities along Lake Ontario as water levels rose about three feet higher than average from heavy rainfall and large water inflows from the other Great Lakes.
Conversely, increasing periods of drought and extreme heat can increase evaporation from the lakes, leading to below-average water levels. This can limit the movement of goods shipped across the Great Lakes. When waters become too shallow along shipping routes, boats need to limit their cargo capacity, which requires more trips and results in higher costs to transport the same amount of cargo.
Water levels in the Great Lakes are jointly managed by the United States and Canada through the International Joint Commission (IJC). A dam on the St. Lawrence River allows the IJC to control water releases to reduce flooding to shoreline communities, improve commercial shipping, and generate electricity. Climate change creates uncertainties and challenges around water quantity and quality in the Great Lakes, but the IJC has developed a framework for assessing and addressing climate impacts in the region.
Even as the potential for variations in water levels increase with climate change, the Great Lakes are likely to remain reliable sources of drinking water, given their vast size and the existence of strategic management strategies. The Great Lakes supply water to over 1 million people in the metropolitan areas of Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse. Some other public water systems can draw water from the Great Lakes when their other sources are limited by drought.
Warming temperatures affect agriculture
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Warming spring temperatures send signals to fruit crops that it’s time to start growing. As the climate warms, warmer spring temperatures are projected to cause blossoms to open early (known as “early budbreak”). When early budbreak is followed by a late spring frost, it can damage the flowers, leading to crop failure. This is a major concern for apple and grape growers in the region, who have seen significant crop losses in recent years. For example, a week of unseasonably high temperatures in early March 2012 led to budbreak three to four weeks earlier than usual. After several frost events later in the spring, damage to grapes in the Lake Erie region led to economic losses of about 45 to 60 million dollars. Farmers in the region are changing their farming practices and planting new types of grapes to adapt to warmer temperatures and greater extremes.2
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Great Lakes region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Climate Change Threatens Apple Production, but It Is Not Too Late to Adapt. Fruit producers are experiencing disruptions and losses due to climate change, requiring adaptation solutions. Financial incentives may provide opportunities to encourage adaptation.
- Sustainable Site Remediation and Climate Change Adaptation: A Matter of Equity and Environmental Justice for Buffalo’s Delavan-Grider Neighborhood. Climate change-induced heavy rain and flooding could complicate remediation of contaminated sites.
- It Takes a Village: How the Village of Sodus Point Is Adapting to Variable Water Levels. Partnerships and local knowledge can help municipalities—especially smaller ones, such as the Village of Sodus Point—find new ways to build climate resilience.
- Connecting the Dots: Local and Regional Efforts to Facilitate Habitat Continuity in a Changing Climate. As climate change increasingly affects our ecosystems, conservation efforts in New York State focus on maintaining and reconnecting wildlife habitat.
- A Tale of Two Dairies: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Large and Small Dairy Farms in New York State. Owners of a large dairy farm located in Genesee County have built a climate-controlled barn with insulation, ceiling fans, and side curtains to keep the building cool in the summer and warm in the winter.
- 2014 Lake-Effect Snowstorms Kick Off Decade of Disaster. The week before Thanksgiving 2014, deadly lake-effect storms caused unprecedented snowfall in Western and North Central New York, stranding travelers and residents of Buffalo and surrounding communities.
References
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1. National Weather Service. (n.d.). Winter Summary 2022-23 – Buffalo. https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/Winter_Summary_2022_23.pdf
2. Angelica A. Morrison. (2017, November 16). Great Lakes vineyard confronts climate change. Great Lakes Today. https://www.wbfo.org/2017-11-16/great-lakes-vineyard-confronts-climate-change