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Climate Impact Spotlight: The Champlain Valley Region
Get to Know the Champlain Valley Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Champlain Valley region includes Clinton County and eastern Warren and Essex counties. Much of the region lies within the boundaries of the Adirondack Park. Lake Champlain forms the eastern border of the region. Lake Champlain, ranked the thirteenth largest lake in the United States, covers nearly 500 square miles, most of which is shared by New York State and Vermont, with the northernmost portion extending into Quebec. Several rivers, including the Saranac, Ausable, and Boquet, flow eastward from the Adirondacks and empty into Lake Champlain. The Adirondack mountains rise to the west of the region, with some highland areas extending into the Champlain Valley itself. The southern section of the region includes Lake George, a popular vacation destination since the 19th century. With its wealth of lakeshore, mountains, and rivers, the Champlain Valley region offers a wide range of outdoor recreational opportunities. Plattsburgh is the largest city in the region, with a population of approximately 20,000, but for the most part, the region is characterized by small towns and patchworks of farmland (11% of land) and forest (65% of land).
The Champlain Valley Region’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. The more northerly parts of the state, including the Champlain Valley, are expected to experience some of the largest changes. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in the region are projected to increase between 4.6°F and 6.7°F by the 2050s and between 6.1°F and 10.8 °F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average. The number of very cold days in the region is expected to decrease. For example, Dannemora, the weather station in this region with the best long-term weather records for this climate assessment, has historically experienced an average of 21 days below 0°F. These very cold days are expected to become less common. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Dannemora is projected to have only three to six days below 0°F, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only 0.5 to four days below 0°F. Days below freezing (i.e., 32°F) will also decrease.
The number of extremely hot days in the region is projected to increase. Dannemora has historically experienced an average of two days per year over 90°F; this number is projected to increase to eight to 19 days per year by mid-century and to 14 to 48 days per year by the end of the century
Warmer temperatures mean less snow and ice. Winter precipitation in the region is projected to increase between 6% and 21% by the 2050s and between 16% and 31% by the 2080s, relative to the 1981–2010 average. However, more of this precipitation will fall as rain than snow due to warmer temperatures.
Lake Champlain and other lakes in the region have already experienced declines in ice cover. Lakes throughout the state are freezing later and thawing earlier than in the past. The number of days of ice cover is projected to continue to decrease.
The Champlain Valley is one of the regions of the state with the largest projected increases in total annual precipitation. Total precipitation is projected to increase between 4% and 12% by the 2050s and between 7% and 14% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. This precipitation could increasingly come from heavy storms, which can lead to flooding.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Changes in lake ice cover
Lake Champlain, which has an ice cover record going back to the early 1800s, has had more ice-free winters in recent decades. The lake used to freeze over completely almost every year, but it has frozen over only three times since 2007 (in 2014, 2015, and 2019).1 Lake George, as well as smaller lakes in the region, are already experiencing fewer frozen days than they used to. Loss of winter ice cover affects winter recreation such as skating and ice fishing, and in cases where ice does form in shallower bays and inlets, thinner ice increases the risks associated with these winter ice activities. Loss of winter ice cover can also affect ecosystems by disrupting food webs and changing the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water.
Extreme precipitation and water levels
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Heavy rains can lead to flooding and ultimately raise the water level in Lake Champlain, posing threats to communities in the region. For example, in 2023, two extreme storms (one in early July and one in late December) caused water levels to rise dramatically as the lake received runoff from hundreds of rain-swollen lakes and streams in New York State and Vermont. The December storm caused Lake Champlain water levels to rise to about 99 feet above sea level on December 22, which is about four feet above the historical average for the same date and nearly four feet above the annual average water level of the lake.2 High water levels can cause shoreline erosion, damage piers and docks, enter shorefront properties, and limit access to ferry docks. It can also damage wildlife habitat, such as nesting sites for shoreline species such as the spotted sandpiper.
Impacts to ferry service
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In Lake Champlain, flooding from storms can disrupt ferry service. Residents use these ferries to travel between New York and Vermont for their jobs, and tourists use the ferries to travel from one side of the lake to the other.
Climate change impacts to ferry operations will affect local and regional distributors that use ferries. For example, some distribution companies send their delivery trucks on the Lake Champlain ferry because of the convenience, shortened travel time, and fuel cost savings. Ferry delays and shutdowns resulting from high water events disrupt commuting, tourism, and commerce. On the other hand, as Lake Champlain is freezing over less frequently during winters, more ice-free days means that ferries can operate for longer periods of the year.
Impacts to agriculture
The Champlain Valley is home to a wealth of family-owned farms that produce dairy and beef cattle, sheep, apples and other fruit, and a wide variety of vegetable crops. For example, Clinton County is home to many apple orchards. As the climate warms, warmer spring temperatures are projected to cause apple blossoms to open early (known as “early budbreak”). When early budbreak is followed by a late spring frost, it can damage the flowers and lead to crop failure. When a late spring frost is predicted, growers can protect trees by using overhead sprinklers to create an ice layer around the buds to keep freezing temperatures from destroying them.
The Champlain Valley is also home to numerous dairy farms. High temperature and humidity levels can lead to heat stress in dairy cows. With warming summer temperatures projected, heat stress could become an increasing concern. Dairy farmers can reduce heat stress to cows by upgrading facilities with better ventilation and cooling mechanisms, including fans and sprinklers.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Champlain Valley region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Climate Change Gives Devastating Hemlock Pest Six Legs Up in New York State. When the tree-killing hemlock woolly adelgid spread northward, warmer winters in New York State led to unexpected outbreaks.
- Collaborative Resilience Planning in the Adirondacks’ Ausable River Watershed. In the aftermath of Hurricane Irene and flooding damage to water infrastructure, local communities in the Ausable River watershed successfully planned, designed, and implemented river restoration in partnership with a local environmental nongovernmental organization to increase climate resilience in the watershed.
- Climate Change Threatens Apple Production, but It Is Not Too Late to Adapt. Fruit producers are experiencing disruptions and losses due to climate change, requiring adaptation solutions. Financial incentives may provide opportunities to encourage adaptation.
- Heat Stress Relief in New York State Dairy Farming. Strategies for reducing heat stress in New York State dairy cattle during extreme heat events.
References
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1. National Weather Service. (n.d.). Dates of Lake Champlain Closing. Retrieved January 24, 2024, from https://www.weather.gov/btv/lakeclose#
2. National Weather Service. (n.d.). Lake Champlain Extremes & Level. Retrieved January 24, 2024, from https://www.weather.gov/btv/lakeLevel?year=2023