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Climate Impact Spotlight: The Central/Finger Lakes Region
Get to Know the Central/Finger Lakes Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Central/Finger Lakes region includes Cortland, Livingston, Madison, Onondaga, Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins, Wyoming, Yates, and southern Cayuga counties. Nearly 37% of the region’s land is forested, and 41% is agricultural. Parts of the region are ideal for growing certain types of grapes, helping to make the state a top U.S. wine producer. Although the region is largely rural, it includes larger cities such Syracuse, the fifth most populous city in the state. Both the Oneida Nation Indian Territory and Onondaga Nation Indian Territory are located in the region.
The region’s name refers to 11 Finger Lakes shaped by glaciers in the most recent Ice Age. The Finger Lakes are popular for fishing, swimming, and boating. Bike routes throughout the region offer another way to appreciate its rolling hills, lakes, and vineyards. The region is a destination for hiking, with dramatic gorges and waterfalls such as those at Letchworth State Park (the “Grand Canyon of the East”), Watkins Glen State Park, and Taughannock Falls State Park.
The lakes and surrounding wetlands support diverse ecosystems. For example, the Montezuma National Wildlife Refuge at the north end of Cayuga Lake provides critical habitat for native wildlife and migratory birds. The region also includes many historic small towns, some of which are closely associated with the 19th century women’s suffrage and abolitionist movements.
The Central/Finger Lakes Region’s Changing Climate
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Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in the region are projected to increase between 4.6°F and 6.4°F by the 2050s and between 5.9°F and 10.5°F by the 2080s, compared with the 1981–2010 average. The number of extremely hot days is projected to increase as well. Syracuse—the weather station in the region with the best long-term weather records for this climate assessment—has historically experienced an average of nine days per year over 90°; this number is projected to increase to 24 to 42 days per year by mid-century and to 35 to 70 days per year by the end of the century.
The number of days below freezing in the Central/Finger Lakes region is expected to decrease. For example, Syracuse has historically experienced an average of 134 days below freezing (i.e., 32°F). These cold days are expected to become less common. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Syracuse is projected to have only 78 to 110 days below freezing, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), it is projected to have only 56 to 89 days below 32°F. Days below 0°F will also decrease.
Warmer winter temperatures also mean less precipitation will fall as snow. Many parts of this region experience lake-effect snow coming off the Great Lakes. There is potential for lake-effect snowfall in the region to increase in the short term as warmer water and decreased ice cover allow more water to evaporate from the lakes. Over the long term, however, more of this is likely to fall as rain. In Syracuse, winter precipitation has increasingly fallen as rain rather than as snow since 1949 due to warmer temperatures. This trend is expected to continue.
Like elsewhere in New York State, total annual precipitation in the Central/Finger Lakes region is projected to increase in the next century. As weather patterns change, however, more of this precipitation will fall in heavy bursts, and short-term droughts lasting weeks to months could increase, particularly in the summer.
Warmer air temperatures also lead to increasing surface water temperatures in the Finger Lakes and other waters throughout the region. Oneida Lake, for example, is projected to see surface water temperatures increase by 6.7°F by the end of the century. Some of the lakes in the region will see increasing differences between surface and deep-water temperatures, known as thermal stratification. Stratification prevents the water from mixing and can change water chemistry and harm aquatic life. It can also prevent dissolved oxygen from reaching deeper waters, which, in severe cases, can kill fish.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Climate change and wine production
The Finger Lakes create a microclimate ideal for growing certain types of grapes, making New York one of the country’s top wine producing states. The Central/Finger Lakes region has more than 100 wineries and is well known for its Rieslings and other white wines. The region’s award-winning wines come from European grape varieties, which are especially vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation. Warming temperatures in late winter and early spring can cause grapevines and other fruit crops to blossom early. A late spring frost can then damage flowers and cause crop failure. This is a major concern for wine growers in the region, who have experienced large crop losses in recent years, for example, a loss of up to 67% of European grape varieties in spring 2014.1 Increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather events, from floods to droughts, can create additional challenges. New York State’s farmers are experienced with extreme weather and are constantly monitoring temperatures and weather risks to manage climate impacts to their crops. As temperatures rise throughout this century, some growers might be able to shift to different grape varieties, though replacing long-lived grapevines can require a substantial investment of money and time.
Warming temperatures affect apples and dairy production
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The Central/Finger Lakes region is also a significant producer of apples and dairy products. As with grapes, “false spring” warming can cause apples to blossom too early, making them vulnerable to frost damage. Unusually warm temperatures in early March 2012 and several frost events after that caused extensive damage to New York State’s fruit crops. Apple growers across the state reported economic losses of up to 80%, with one producer in Onondaga County losing between $500,000 and $1 million due to frost damage.
Dairy farms are also common throughout the region. High temperature and humidity can lead to heat stress in dairy cows. This reduces the amount of milk they produce, and in severe cases can harm their health. Warming summer temperatures could make heat stress an increasing concern in the region. Dairy farmers can reduce heat stress to cows by upgrading facilities with better ventilation and cooling mechanisms, including fans and sprinklers. Online tools, such as Cornell University’s Climate Smart Farming toolkit, can provide information to help farmers understand and manage their climate-related risks.
Harmful algal blooms in the Finger Lakes
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The Finger Lakes are generally known for good water quality, which supports recreation, drinking water, and healthy ecosystems. Warmer lake temperatures and increased runoff from heavy rainfall can harm water quality by creating conditions for cyanobacteria and algae to thrive. Algal blooms occur in warm, nutrient-rich waters, and some are labeled “harmful” when they produce toxic compounds. Harmful algal blooms in the Finger Lakes can create health risks from fishing or swimming. They can also reduce incomes for local businesses that depend on fishing, boating, and other water-related activities.
Research shows that changing precipitation and temperatures likely contributed to an increase in harmful algal blooms across New York State from 2016 through 2019. Within this region, Skaneateles Lake recorded its first harmful algal bloom in 2017, and has confirmed algal blooms every year since.2 Owasco Lake has also experienced recent harmful algal blooms—a particular concern for the city of Auburn and town of Owasco, which use the lake for drinking water. These municipalities have either upgraded their treatment facilities or switched to alternate water supplies to protect residents from contaminated drinking water. Some cities, such as Syracuse, maintain connections to the Great Lakes that they can draw from if their primary water supply from Skaneateles Lake is affected by water quality issues or drought.
Changes to seasonal recreation and tourism
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Seasonal activities like winter sports, cycling, and leaf-peeping are important to local economies that depend on outdoor recreation and tourism. The Central/Finger Lakes region offers a range of snow-related activities, such as snowshoeing, snowmobiling, ice skating, and downhill and cross-country skiing, which are at risk from warming temperatures and decreasing snowfall. Many ski areas throughout the Northeast have expanded the activities they offer during the rest of the year to help offset the uncertainty of winter revenues.
In addition, climate change could alter the timing and duration of fall foliage, leading to impacts to fall tourism in the region. Some studies suggest that warmer temperatures may delay the onset of fall color change, leading to a shortened foliage season.
Seasonal changes could also create new opportunities for those who can adapt. Cycling is already a popular activity throughout the Central/Finger Lakes region. Warmer spring and fall temperatures could mean a longer season for cycling and other warm-weather activities like boating.
Wastewater system overflows and upgrades
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Syracuse is one of several urban areas in New York State that operate combined sewer systems, which collect stormwater and municipal sewage into one system and send the combined wastewater to a treatment facility before being discharged to a body of water. During heavy rainfall or snowmelt events, large amounts of water can exceed the system’s capacity, causing it to overflow and release untreated wastewater into nearby water bodies. These events, known as combined sewer overflows (CSOs), are a pollution concern for surrounding communities and ecosystems. Changing rainfall patterns and extreme events could cause CSOs to become more common.
In recent years, Onondaga County has completed more than 250 projects to reduce CSOs. While infrastructure updates can often be very expensive, the county has managed to keep costs down by combining small and large wastewater infrastructure upgrades with other construction projects, like street repaving or highway reconstruction. In addition, the Onondaga Nation has worked with the county and other partners to add green infrastructure solutions that help prevent CSOs into Onondaga Creek, which feeds into Onondaga Lake.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Central/Finger Lakes Region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Taking a Proactive Approach to Climate Change to Preserve Seven Generations of Grape Growing and Wine Making in the Finger Lakes. Adapting to climate change is crucial for grape producers. As Hunt Country Vineyards shows, adaptation can also provide opportunities to spark conversations on climate change and gain recognition for sustainable business practices.
- Investing to Adapt to the Uncertainties and Extremes of Climate Change in Field Crop Production. Forage and grain field crops are economically important for New York State. Adapting to climate change is costly, but also an investment in the farm’s long-term resilience and viability.
- Connecting the Dots: Local and Regional Efforts to Facilitate Habitat Continuity in a Changing Climate. As climate change increasingly affects our ecosystems, conservation efforts in New York State focus on maintaining and reconnecting wildlife habitat.
- A Tale of Two Dairies: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Large and Small Dairy Farms in New York State. Owners of a small dairy farm located in Madison County installed ceiling fans in their barn to reduce cow heat stress and use composted bedding that provides storage for manure, saving time and labor for manure management in extreme rainfall events.
- Urban Heat Islands and Energy Inequality in Syracuse, New York. Urban heat islands cause disproportionate energy burdens for people living in neighborhoods that are low-income and that have higher populations of people of color. To help combat the urban heat island effect, Syracuse adopted an Urban Forestry Master Plan to provide cooling where it is needed most.
References
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1. Dave Sit. (2019, September 14). Will Our Rieslings Survive? Ithaca.Com. https://www.ithaca.com/news/ithaca/will-our-rieslings-survive/article_14f63e72-d4ac-11e9-bffc-d3f41c1b36a3.html
2. Bloom Updates. (n.d.). Skaneateles Lake Association. https://skaneateleslake.org/bloom-updates/