Climate Impact Spotlight: The Catskill Region

Get to Know the Catskill Region

For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Catskills Region includes Greene, Ulster, Delaware, and Sullivan counties. The region is largely rural and is home to the Catskill Mountains, which have the highest elevations in the state outside of the Adirondacks region. The Catskill range lies within the 700,000-acre Catskill Park. Over 75% of the region’s land is forested, and 9% is agricultural. Kingston is the largest city in the region. The Hudson River forms the eastern boundary of the Catskills region in Green and Ulster Counties. The Delaware River forms the region’s border with the state of Pennsylvania. Many of the reservoirs that provide New York City with its drinking water are in the Catskills. The region provides a wide range of outdoor recreation opportunities, including hiking, cycling, snowmobiling, skiing, fishing, camping, and river rafting.

Average temperatures are projected to increase in all seasons across all regions of New York State. Averaged over the entire year, temperatures in the Catskills Region are projected to increase between 4.1°F and 6.1°F by the 2050s and between 5.7°F and 10°F by the 2080s compared with the 1981–2010 average. The number of cold days in the region is expected to decrease. Mohonk, the weather station in this region with the best long-term weather records for this climate assessment, has historically experienced an average of 124 days below freezing (i.e., 32°F). These cold days are expected to become less common. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Mohonk is projected to have only 80 to 101 days below freezing, and by the end of this century (the 2080s), Mohonk is projected to have only 51 to 87 days below freezing.

The number of extremely hot days is projected to increase in the region. Mohonk Lake has historically experienced an average of seven days per year above 90°F; this number is expected to increase to 20 to 36 days per year by mid-century and 30 to 65 days per year by the end of the century.

Warmer temperatures mean less snow and ice. Winter precipitation in the region is projected to increase between 6% and 20% by the 2050s and between 11% and 30% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. However, more of this precipitation will fall as rain than snow due to warmer temperatures.

The Catskills is one of the regions of the state with the largest projected increases in total annual precipitation and in the number of days with extreme levels of precipitation. Total precipitation is projected to increase between 4% and 11% by the 2050s and between 7% and 16% by the 2080s relative to the 1981–2010 average. This precipitation will likely come from more heavy storms, which can contribute to high streamflow and lead to flooding. The Hudson River in this area is tidal and therefore vulnerable to flooding from a combination of high streamflow and tidal flooding made worse by sea level rise. With sea level rise, water levels as far north as Albany are projected to increase between 12 to 18 inches by the 2050s relative to a 1995–2014 baseline.

Effects of seasonal changes on outdoor recreation and tourism

Seasonal activities like winter sports, cycling, and leaf-peeping are important to local economies that depend on outdoor recreation and tourism. Snow-related activities such as snowshoeing, snowmobiling, ice skating, and skiing and snowboarding are particularly at risk from changing winter temperatures and snowfall. The Catskill Mountains offer downhill ski destinations such as Hunter and the Windham Mountain Club, as well as several smaller ski slopes. More than 100 ski resorts in New York State have closed since the late 1960s, with changing climate conditions playing a role in many cases. As winter temperatures rise, the statewide average number of days per year suitable for downhill skiing are expected to drop from the historical average (68 days) to between 31 and 42 days by the middle of this century.  Many ski areas throughout the Northeast have expanded the activities they offer during the rest of the year to help offset the uncertainty of winter revenues.

In addition, climate change impacts could bring changes to fall tourism in the region. Some studies suggest that warmer temperatures may delay onset of fall color change, leading to a shortened foliage season.

Seasonal changes could also create new opportunities for those who can adapt. Cycling is growing in visibility and popularity in many areas of New York State. Within the Catskills region, towns such as New Paltz sit at the junction of numerous cycling trails that are attracting growing numbers of cycling tourists. Warmer spring and fall temperatures could mean longer cycling seasons and increased interest in other outdoor opportunities such as hiking.

The higher elevations of the Catskill Mountains are forested with spruce and fir species more characteristic of more northern areas such as Canada and northern Maine. The warming climate could imperil these ecosystems as warmer-climate tree species spread upslope and replace spruce and fir trees. Loss of habitat and changing temperatures can threaten species that depend on high-elevation habitats, such as the Bicknell’s thrush, which nests only in the Catskills and Adirondacks and is vulnerable to disappearing in New York State.

The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Catskills region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.

• Flood Buyouts, Restoration, and Relocation for Community Resilience in Rural New York State. Because 42% of the Village of Sidney’s population was residing in extreme or high flood risk areas, the village resolved to relocate its flood-prone households.
• Approaches to Water Management in a Changing Climate in the Delaware River Basin. This case study highlights the role of the Delaware River Basin Commission in establishing dialogue and building consensus across states and municipalities, including New York City and Philadelphia, that rely on the Delaware River for water. The case study investigates how a climate change advisory committee is guiding the development of new technical knowledge while grappling with potential regional changes in water availability and quality.
• From Disastrous Delays in Extreme Weather to Resilient Energy-Efficient Emergency Operations: Rebuilding the New Paltz Firehouse Through Community-Driven Commitment. After flooding and power outages from back-to-back storms hampered emergency response in New Paltz, local and state leaders collaborated to create a model climate-resilient firehouse that will remain operational even during power outages caused by extreme weather events.
• Exploring Paths to Long-Term Resilience: Evolving Options for Protecting the City of Kingston’s Wastewater Treatment Plant from Rising Waters. At the intersection of Roundout Creek and the Hudson River, Kingston’s East Strand Street wastewater treatment plant stands just a few feet away from a rising estuarial river. This case study explores impacts from prior flooding on the facility and examines how Kingston can treat its sewage over the long term without interruption from coastal storms and elevated sea levels.
• Climate Change Gives Devastating Hemlock Pest Six Legs Up in New York State. When the tree-killing hemlock woolly adelgid spread northward, warmer winters in New York State led to unexpected outbreaks.

1. Diane Pineiro-Zucker. (2023, December 18). One dead in Catskill as floods hit Mid-Hudson region; Kingston mayor warns of tidal flooding. Daily Freeman. https://www.dailyfreeman.com/2023/12/18/heavy-rains-cause-power-outages-some-schools-to-close/

2. Lloyd, E., & Licata, A. (n.d.). One New York City: One Water. New York City Department of Environmental Protection.