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Climate Impact Spotlight: The Adirondacks Region
Get to Know the Adirondacks Region
For the purposes of the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment, the Adirondacks region includes Lewis County, Hamilton County, northern Herkimer County, western Warren and Essex Counties, and southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. Most of the region is within the Adirondack Park, which encompasses more than 6 million acres of both publicly and privately owned land. With a wealth of lakes, mountains, and rivers, the Adirondacks region offers a wide range of recreational opportunities. In fact, outdoor tourism is an important source of local revenue and accounts for 19% of employment in the region. The Adirondacks region has the smallest proportion of developed land of any region the state. Nearly 80% of the region is classified as forested land, and only slightly more than 2% is developed. The Adirondacks region is the least densely populated region with 130,000 year-round residents and a large share of seasonal residents, increasing the population by an additional 200,000 residents part-time throughout the year.
The Adirondacks Region’s Changing Climate
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The Adirondacks region has historically been the coldest part of New York State. This will remain true, but with climate change, average temperatures are expected to increase by 4.6°F to 6.6°F by the 2050s, compared to the 1981–2010 baseline, and by 6.1°F to 10.6°F by the 2080s. This region is projected to experience some of the largest temperature increases in the state.
Lake Placid—the weather station in this region with the best long-term weather records for this climate assessment—has historically experienced an average of 33 days below 0°F per year. These very cold days are expected to become less common. By the middle of this century (the 2050s), Lake Placid is projected to have only nine to 15 days below 0°F per year and by the end of this century (the 2080s), Lake Placid is projected to have only two to 11 days below 0°F per year. The number of days below freezing is also projected to decrease.
Meanwhile, the number of extremely hot days is projected to increase. Lake Placid has historically experienced an average of just one day per year above 90°F. This number is expected to increase to six and 16 days per year by mid-century and between 12 and 45 days per year by the end of the century.
Warmer temperatures will bring a shift in snowfall and lake ice. The Adirondacks have already experienced a long-term decrease in snowfall. Winter precipitation is predicted to increase in this region, but more will fall as rain than snow due to warmer temperatures. Lake George, as well as smaller lakes in the region, are already experiencing fewer frozen days than in the past. Lakes throughout the state are freezing later and thawing earlier, and this trend is expected to continue. For instance, Lower Saint Regis Lake in the Adirondacks is projected to lose an additional seven to 21 days of ice cover by 2100.
Climate Projections and Our Actions
Projections of future climate change depend on the world’s future emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Some of the projections discussed here present a range of numbers, based on those future emissions. If global emissions are reduced, it would decrease future warming and some of the associated impacts, and the resulting climate changes could be closer to the lower numbers presented here—or even lower.
Climate Impacts to Important Regional Features
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Effects of seasonal changes on outdoor recreation and tourism
Seasonal activities like skiing, boating, and leaf-peeping are critical to local Adirondack economies that depend on outdoor recreation and tourism. In the region that was home to the 1932 and 1980 Winter Olympics, snow-related activities are particularly at risk from changing winter temperatures and snowfall. The Adirondack mountains offer major downhill ski destinations such as Whiteface Mountain Ski Center and Gore Mountain, as well as several smaller ski slopes. More than 100 ski resorts in New York State have closed since the late 1960s, with changing climate conditions playing a role in many cases. As winter temperatures rise, the statewide average number of days per year suitable for downhill skiing is expected to drop from the historical average (i.e., 68 days) to 31 to 42 days by the middle of this century. Ice cover loss on lakes in the region will reduce opportunities for ice fishing, skating, and ice hockey.
Warmer temperatures could also lead to concerns such as harmful algae and invasive aquatic species that affect summertime lake recreation; lower populations of coldwater fish such as brook trout; and changes to fall tourism as foliage season is delayed and shortened.
Seasonal changes could also create new opportunities for those who can adapt. For example, warmer spring and fall temperatures could mean longer boating and cycling seasons. Many ski areas throughout the Northeast have expanded the activities they offer during the rest of the year to help offset the uncertainty of winter revenues.
Impacts to Adirondack ecosystems
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The Adirondacks region harbors about 175 acres of alpine ecosystem on the slopes of the High Peaks above 4,500 feet in elevation. The warming climate may imperil these ecosystems as warmer-climate tree species move upslope and replace the low-lying alpine plants that are otherwise rare in New York State. Loss of habitat and changing temperatures can threaten species that depend on high elevation habitats, such as Bicknell’s thrush, which is vulnerable to disappearing in New York State. The common loon, an Adirondack icon, may also face stresses from climate change, because increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can affect the loon’s ability to nest. Milder winters could lead to an increase in white-tailed deer populations in the region. Larger deer populations could change the composition of tree species. Moose, whose habitat may shift northward out of New York State as temperatures rise, may also be threatened by parasites spread by white-tailed deer.
Impacts from extreme rainfall and river flooding
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The projected increase in extreme precipitation is likely to raise flood risks along river valleys. For example, in August 2011, heavy rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Irene caused extreme flooding of the Ausable River, damaging residential, commercial, and municipal buildings. This event destroyed 24 homes and damaged Upper Jay’s town library and the Town of Keene’s fire station. In anticipation of flooding, utilities cut off gas supply to thousands of customers, and high winds brought down trees and power lines, leading to extended power outages. More recently, in early July 2023, an extreme rainstorm caused significant flooding, bridge washouts, and road closures throughout large parts of the Adirondacks.
Case Studies
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The following case studies delve into some detailed examples of impacts in the Adirondacks region and ways that some communities and industries are adapting.
- Climate Change Gives Devastating Hemlock Pest Six Legs Up in New York State. When the tree-killing hemlock woolly adelgid spread northward, warmer winters in the Adirondacks led to unexpected outbreaks.
- Four-Season Tourism as an Economic Adaptation: The Adirondacks as a New Cycling Destination. New cycling opportunities in the Adirondacks show how communities whose economies rely on winter tourism are adapting to climate change with off-season recreation.
- Collaborative Resilience Planning in the Adirondacks’ Ausable River Watershed. In the aftermath of Hurricane Irene and flooding damage to water infrastructure, local communities in the Ausable River watershed successfully planned, designed, and implemented river restoration in partnership with a local environmental nongovernmental organization to increase climate resilience in the watershed.