New York State’s climate is changing. Rising temperatures, increased precipitation, rising sea levels, and more frequent and extreme weather events are happening now and projected to worsen. The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment provides a science-based analysis of what to expect from climate change in New York.

In partnership with leading academic institutions, science organizations, community leaders, and others, New York State has undertaken a comprehensive research effort to enable decision-makers at all levels—from individual residents, businesses, and landowners to municipal and state government—to better understand the impacts of climate change and make informed choices about how to prepare for them. The assessment also strives to show how addressing climate change provides opportunities to enhance equity and reduce the vulnerability of those most at risk.

Explore the assessment results at the links above:

• Explore the Assessment for detailed information on the impacts of climate change on eight sectors across the state, through in-depth technical chapters, summary information, and case studies. 
• Visit New York State’s Land and People for context around the state’s geography and demographics, with a focus on equity and vulnerable populations.
• New York State’s Changing Climate provides projections and information on current and future climate conditions in New York State, incorporating and reflecting the latest data, models, and scientific understanding of climate change.

The following summary findings seek to convey overarching themes identified from the climate modeling and sector research from across the entirety of the assessment.

Summary Findings from the Assessment

Summary Finding 1: Climate change is affecting New York State now and is projected to continue to change and affect every region of the state. Since 1901, average temperatures have increased by almost 2.6°F, and average annual precipitation has also increased. Climate modeling undertaken for this New York State assessment projects that temperature and precipitation will increase further this century. An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, along with sea level rise, will strain the limits of the state’s infrastructure and natural environment and the services they provide. However, it is important to recognize that these future impacts are not inevitable. If the world takes serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and control future warming, the resulting climate changes could be more manageable and less costly.

Summary Finding 2: Even under a lower-emissions scenario, climate change impacts across New York State will be substantial. Heat-trapping greenhouse gases that were emitted in the past have already changed the climate in ways that are causing impacts now. These past emissions, as well as current emissions, will continue to change the climate to some degree. It is important to recognize that adapting to current and future climate change impacts is necessary to safeguard New York State.

Summary Finding 3: The frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heavy rainstorms, seasonal droughts, and heat waves are projected to increase. Many of these events are already happening more often in New York State and have serious consequences for human health, communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Adaptation and design strategies that consider long-term climate projections with a focus on extreme events will better address future climate risk.

Summary Finding 4: Sea level along New York State’s coastline has risen almost 1 foot in the past century and is projected to increase by another 1 to 2 feet by midcentury. Sea level rise will make chronic flooding more common in low-lying coastal neighborhoods, lead to intrusion of salt water into groundwater and freshwater coastal ecosystems, and yield more destructive storm surge during coastal storms. Coastal communities will benefit from planning and design that accounts for future sea levels.

Summary Finding 5: Climate hazards often do not occur in isolation, and impacts can be compounded when multiple events happen near each other in time or space. A heat wave that occurs right after a storm that causes a power outage, for example, could have more serious impacts than either event on its own. Two back-to-back heavy rain events could lead to worse flooding than if they occur further apart in time. Current planning often does not consider these types of compounding events. Resilience efforts would benefit from planning and design that considers the impacts of multi-hazard and compounding climate events.

Summary Finding 6: New York State residents and communities that are marginalized or suffer from legacies of displacement or discrimination are more vulnerable to climate impacts. Communities of color, Indigenous communities, and low-income communities—urban, suburban, and rural—often have a greater physical exposure to climate hazards. Climate vulnerabilities can be exacerbated by discriminatory practices in housing, employment, health care, and other systems that have contributed to long-term negative health outcomes. Indigenous communities are directly threatened by climate hazards such as sea level rise, and many cultural practices and traditions are closely tied to the land and ecosystems, which are vulnerable to climate impacts. Recognition of and attention to the needs of historically underserved and overburdened populations are critical elements of equitable and effective resilience planning.

Summary Finding 7: Climate change will introduce new risks and opportunities into nearly every dimension of New York State’s economy. Natural resource-based sectors, including forestry and fisheries, will need to contend with loss of some species and in-migration of new species adapted to warmer temperatures. The loss of snow and ice cover will profoundly affect traditional winter recreational activities and the local economies that depend on them, though warmer temperatures could increase outdoor tourism during longer spring and fall seasons. For agriculture, variable and extreme weather conditions could lead to more crop damage and livestock stress; however, warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons could increase some yields and offer new crop opportunities. The state’s large finance, insurance, and real estate sectors are exposed to national and global climate change risks, including weather-related property damage claims and economic disruptions, yet there are also opportunities for businesses in New York State that incorporate climate risk into decision-making.

Summary Finding 8: Climate change poses escalating health and safety risks for the people of New York State, including risks to mental health. Heat waves, floods and property loss or displacement, and extreme storms are known to have detrimental effects on both physical and mental health, especially for children, older adults, and those with pre-existing health concerns or limited access to health care. However, public health has historically not been a key focus of most of the state’s planning initiatives to address climate change. County and local health departments are well-positioned to ensure that public health considerations are incorporated into climate adaptation planning efforts. Because climate impacts can vary between communities, a collaborative, health-centric, “whole of community” approach that incorporates input from local residents, businesses, community-based organizations, and institutions who are affected can ensure that adaptation plans reflect community needs.

Summary Finding 9: Infrastructure provides vital services across New York State but is vulnerable to climate-related impacts. Buildings, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure can be affected by climate hazards such as heavy rain and flooding, coastal storm surge, and extreme heat. Damage or disruption to these systems affects New Yorkers who use them. Additionally, much of the state’s infrastructure, including bridges, culverts, and water infrastructure, is aging and in need of repair, which increases its vulnerability to climate change. Designing new infrastructure and upgrading existing infrastructure to incorporate climate projections can offer the dual benefits of building climate resilience for the future while providing immediate improvements in function.

Summary Finding 10: Every community and every sector in New York State has the potential to contribute to innovative climate solutions that reduce vulnerabilities, foster resilience, and enhance equity. Climate solutions will need to consider those who will be disproportionately burdened by economic disruption, such as small businesses; fiscally constrained, small, and rural municipalities and cultural institutions; frontline workers; and essential public servants including police, firefighters, and teachers. Local and state governments, schools and universities, nonprofits, museums and cultural institutions, and the private sector all play vital roles in raising climate change awareness, supporting educational and workforce training efforts, and identifying opportunities for innovation that will be necessary to prepare New York State for a changing climate. Centering equity in adaptation and resilience actions and aligning these actions with greenhouse gas reduction strategies is crucial for a successful and sustainable climate change response.

Check back here or subscribe to be notified when new products and information are made available.